date: Fri Jun 11 10:40:08 2004
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: UKCIP review
to: "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>, "Horrocks, Lisa (GA)" <lisa.horrocks@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK>, "Geoff Jenkins (E-mail)" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>

   Lisa,
   I support Geoff's comments here.
   We used what we thought were the best available estimates from Shennan (I entered into some
   discussion with him at the time about this).  If there is anything that the geological
   community regard as "better" we can use them in the future.
   I think Dawson is nit-picking - but then again, if there are new estimates let's be aware
   of them,
   Mike
   At 18:01 09/06/2004 +0100, Jenkins, Geoff wrote:

     Lisa
     Looks like he is criticising the UKCIP02 (ie our) estimates of SLR.
     We did make a correction for vertical land movement based on the only
     info available (pers comm Ian Shennan at Durham University). For the BIC
     report I used a published paper by Shennan (not available in time for
     UKCIP02). I would be happy to consider any better analysis or prediction
     of vertical land movement, but I would be very surprised if the
     difference between Dawson's and Shennan's estimates of it was
     significant compared to the huge uncertainty in global-mean SLR
     (9-69cm), and especially the uncertainty in regional SLR.
     Can you get hold of the report from him or from SNH? You are likley to
     have more luck than us, I suspect.
     I recall a few months ago addressing a similar question from Shetland (I
     think) via Alaster Montgomery (Scot Exec) - to which I gave much the
     same reply, ie if you can find a better estimate of local land movement
     than grab it and add it to SLR.
     Cheers
     Geoff

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Horrocks, Lisa (GA) [[1]mailto:lisa.horrocks@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK]
     Sent: 09 June 2004 17:29
     To: Geoff Jenkins (E-mail); 'm.hulme@uea.ac.uk'
     Subject: FW: UKCIP review
     Geoff, Mike,
     I received this email earlier, provoked I think by the fact that we are
     currently tendering for a review of UKCIP.
     I'd be grateful for your view on what Alastair has said - it is unclear
     to me whether he is criticising the regional scoping studies that UKCIP
     facilitated, or the UKCIP02 scenarios themselves.
     Regards,
     Lisa
     Lisa Horrocks   Global Atmosphere Division
     Defra
     3/A2 Ashdown House  123 Victoria Street
     London  SW1E 6DE
     Tel: 020 7082 8162  Fax: 020 7082 8151 lisa.horrocks@defra.gsi.gov.uk
     [2]www.defra.gov.uk
     -----Original Message-----
     From: A. DAWSON [[3]mailto:GEX014@coventry.ac.uk]
     Sent: 09 June 2004 11:18
     To: Horrocks, Lisa (GA)
     Subject: UKCIP review
     Dear Lisa,
     Just a note to say that my own view was that UKCIP was particularly weak
     wrt its regional estimates of future sea level rise. In particular,
     little attention was given in respect of Scotland to the influence of
     glacio-isostatic deformation on future vertical land movements. I
     summarised this information in an earlier commissioned report for
     Scottish Natural Heritage (reference attached here).
     Yours sincerely,
     Alastair Dawson
     Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
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