date: Fri, 05 Jan 2007 16:20:30 +0100
from: Andr Berger <berger@astr.ucl.ac.be>
subject: Re: Fwd: Re: 2007 to be 'warmest on record'
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Phil,
   Many thanks for your paper and congratulations for reviving the global warming. Wait to see
   you March 5 in Paris.
   Cheers
   Andr
   Le 12:16 5/01/2007, vous avez crit:

      Andre,
         Happy New Year !  Hope to see you in Paris on March 5.
      Here is what I sent back to Timo.  I am realizing that there were
      many more blind cc's on his email, which my reply hasn't gone
      to!  I will email Timo and ask him to send these around.
         I'm attaching just for you the detailed press release for
      the 2006 temperatures and also Chris Folland's prediction
      for 2007. Mine is similar but much simpler. Don't send Chris'
      forecast onto anyone else, but you can send the detailed
      2006 press release on to anybody.
         As usual Timo is wrong !  These forecasts have been done
      for a number of years.  Only two seemed to be archived online.
      I can't seem to persuade either the HC nor UEA to archive these
      for longer, nor add the more detailed pdfs.
      Cheers
      Phil

     Date: Fri, 05 Jan 2007 10:27:24 +0000
     To: Timo Hmeranta <timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi>, "Chris K. Folland"
     <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>
     From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: Re: 2007 to be 'warmest on record'
     Cc: "'Alan J. Thorpe'" <hqpo@nerc.ac.uk>, <a.j.thorpe@reading.ac.uk>, "'Al Pekarek'"
     <apekarek@stcloudstate.edu>, 'Andr Bijkerk' <andrebijkerk@yahoo.com>, "'Anthony R.
     Lupo'" <LupoA@missouri.edu>, "'Benny Peiser'" <b.j.peiser@ljmu.ac.uk>, "'Bob Foster'"
     <fosbob@bigpond.com>, "'Douglas V. Hoyt'" <dhoyt@toast.net>, "'Jack Barrett'"
     <Jack1Barrett@aol.com>, "'Jarl R. Ahlbeck'" <jahlbeck@abo.fi>, "'Michael C. MacCracken'"
     <mmaccrac@comcast.net>, "'Patrick J. Michaels'" <pjm8x@wreck.evsc.virginia.edu>, "'Peter
     Stilbs'" <peter@physchem.kth.se>, "'Piers Corbyn'" <piers@weatheraction.com>, "'Richard
     S. Lindzen'" <lindzen@wind.mit.edu>, "'S. Fred Singer'" <singer@sepp.org>, "'Sallie
     Baliunas'" <baliunas@cfa.harvard.edu>, "'Stephen McIntyre'" <smcintyre@cgxenergy.com>,
     "'Tom V. Segalstad'" <t.v.segalstad@nhm.uio.no>, 'Wibjrn Karln'
     <wibjorn.karlen@kultgeog.uu.se>, "'Willie Soon'" <wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu>, "'Vincent
     Gray'" <vinmary.gray@paradise.net.nz>, "'Boris Winterhalter'"
     <boris.winterhalter@kolumbus.fi>
      Timo,
         You recall incorrectly. This isn't the first time. In fact Chris and the Hadley
      Centre have been doing this for a number of years. The forecasts have
      generally been with the earlier press release in mid-Dec for, if I recall
      correctly, since about 1999 or 2000. The press release archive at the
      Met Office has that for 2006 issued on 15th Dec 2005. You'll need
      to download the pdf with that press release. They don't seem to have
      archived earlier years online (and neither does UEA it seems).
         This said
      1. The forecast for 2006 made then (15/12/05) was 0.45+/- 0.12.
        The final number for 2006 was 0.42
      2. The same pdf gave the forecast from 2004 for 2005. The forecast
      was for 0.51 and it was 0.48.
      Chris will have a list of the earlier forecasts. The switch over from
      HadCRUT2(v) to HadCRUT3(v) has changed levels slightly, so the
      earlier ones are no longer compatible. The techniques that have gone
      into the forecast have also been refined. There is a background
      document to the 2007 forecast, which again Chris may be able to send.
      The 2007 forecast is for 0.54 +/- 0.16 (95% confidence level), which
      is only marginally above the 1998 value (hence the 60% chance that it
      will be broken).
      With the latest method (i.e. that used in 2007), the forecast for 2006
      was 0.37  (real value 0.42), so slightly cold but well within the 95%
      range.
      Chris has told me he is writing up the latest approaches for a paper.
      I can only presume that this time there has been more press coverage,
      as the forecast is for a record. The earlier ones were made, however,
      but as they were always for a value below that in 1998, they seemed
      to get ignored by the press.
      I recall saying with some of the earlier press releases, that it would
      take an El Nino event to break the 1998 record. Although this one is
      only in the moderate category compared to 1997/98, the base level
      is now nearly 0.2 deg C higher than it was in 1997.  2005 got close,
      even without an El Nino event.
      I don't want to get into a big debate about this. There will be an IPCC
      report due out this year, and there will be much to debate there as to
      why the underlying temperatures now are running higher than they were
      in 1997/98.
      As an aside, you can download the global temperature series (HadCRUT3(v))
      from either our (CRU/UEA) or the Met Office (HC) web sites. I recall several
      statements made to the media over the last year or two about trends in
      global temperature since 1998. Before you make these again, work out the
      linear trend from 1998. If you take 1998-2005, or 1998-2006 (I've only
      worked these two out) the trend coefficient is positive. It isn't significant
      statistically, but I wouldn't expect any trend coefficient in any observational
      climate series to be significant when just using 8 or 9 years.
      Best Regards
      Phil
     At 09:08 05/01/2007, Timo Hmeranta wrote:

     Philip D. Jones
     Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia

     Chris K. Folland
     Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research



     Dear Phil and Chris,

     I notice how you predict that this year 2007 will be the warmest on record (The
     Independent Jan 1, and BBC News Jan 4).

     If I recall correctly, this is the first time you have made a prediction for one year.
     Until now you have presented computerized projections only, for decades or a century.

     I suppose you are now confident that HadCam3 parameterizations are now all-inclusive and
     truly reliable for presenting past climates and for predictions.


     Yet, Im a bit suspicious. Until now, as far as I have seen, all the scientists who argue
     that human CO2 emissions are to blame for current warming have explained:

     We dont know any other cause

     I have always wondered how ignorance confirms certainty.


     Actually, to fill certain scientists ignorance we have other scientists who have
     alternative explanations.


     For example, when we take a look for longer periods than recent decades or thermometer
     readings we see how the Earth has been warming almost 400 years now, with cooling
     intervals.


     One alternative explanation is

     Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery, 2006 Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years.
     276 pp., Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., December 2006

    Book Description

     Singer and Avery present in popular language supported by in-depth scientific evidence
     the compelling concept that global temperatures have been rising mostly or entirely
     because of a natural cycle. Unstoppable Global Warming explains why we're warming, why
     it's not very dangerous, and why we can't stop it anyway.

     Personally, I dont know how climate evolves in near or far future. We may be heading
     e.g. for a new Maunder Minimum or for a long natural warm era.

     But, as far as I can see, scientifically you, dear scientists, dont know for sure,
     either.


     All the best to yr future attempts to enlarge our knowledge and understanding.


     Timo



     xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

     Timo Hmeranta, LL.M.
     Martinlaaksontie 42 B 9
     01620 Vantaa
     Finland, European Union
     Email: timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi
     Home page: [1]http://personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm

     "If the facts change, I'll change my opinion. What do you do, Sir" (John Maynard Keynes)

     "To dwell only on horror scenarios of the future shows only a lack of imagination".(Kari
     Enqvist)

     xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx





     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
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     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Prof. A. BERGER
   Universit catholique de Louvain
   Institut d'Astronomie et de Gophysique G. Lematre
   2 Chemin du Cyclotron
   B-1348  LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE
   BELGIUM
   Tel. +32-10-47 33 03
   Fax +32-10-47 47 22
   E_mail: berger@astr.ucl.ac.be
   [2]http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/u/berger
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

