date: Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:45:10 +0100
from: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
to: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk

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Quoting P.Jones@uea.ac.uk:

Phil,

I will do that, but there seem to be two problems:

1) why would it all happen in 1997-98? its hard to believe that many  
new drifters were deployed, starting just that year.

2) there are examples of abrupt shifts in other parts of the time  
series - why should this be especially suspect?

thanks for any additional help  on this, tom

>  Tom,
>    The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue
>  of many more drifters providing measurements over the last
>  5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where
>  we didn't have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH
>  between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is
>  very little ship data there.
>    Whatever causes the divergence in your plot it is down to
>  the ocean.
>    You could try doing an additional plot. Download from
>  the CRU web site the series for SH land. It doesn't matter if
>  is from CRUTEM3 or CRUTEM3v (the former would be better). If that
>  still has the divergence, then it is the oceans causing the
>  problem. What you're seeing is too rapid to be real.
>
>  Cheers
>  Phil
>
>>
>> Phil, do you have any comments with respect to either my note sent
>> yesterday to RealClimate.org, or Ray's query below?  just want to make
>> sure I touch the appropriate bases before I send it back to RCO.
>>
>> thanks in advance for any help, with regards, tom
>>
>> ----- Forwarded message from rbradley@geo.umass.edu -----
>>      Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:17:18 -0400
>>      From: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
>> Reply-To: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
>>   Subject: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
>>        To: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>
>>        Cc: mann@psu.edu
>>
>> Hi Tom,
>> The Easterling & Wehner preprint is attached.  It would be good if
>> you could expand your comment to include some reflections on this.
>> One cautionary note--talking to Phil Jones last week, he mentioned
>> that the recent addition of SH buoy data has added data from areas of
>> the globe hitherto undersampled; it may have "suppressed" the ocean
>> area warming relative to land.  You might contact Phil to see if the
>> rapid warming in land, but not ocean, has anything to do with
>> that.  I'm always a bit nervous about the ever-changing database of
>> obserevational records, particularly with the expansion of the
>> network using automated instruments.  It may turn out not to be a
>> relevant factor to your post, but something to ponder, nevertheless...
>> Ray
>>
>> At 11:48 AM 4/13/2009, you wrote:
>>
>>> Dear Mike and Ray,
>>>
>>> attached is a contribution to your website about trends in global
>>> temperatures.
>>> I realize that you often do not have outsiders comment, but as I
>>> explain in my note, the results I show are quite striking and
>>> illustrated in a different way than some (many?) may have seen.
>>>
>>> Since the figure illustrates something of wide interest, I hope you
>>> can make an exception to your normal rules.
>>>
>>> With regards, Tom
>>>
>>> --
>>> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
>>> Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> ----- End forwarded message -----
>>
>>
>> --
>> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
>> Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
>>
>>
>
>
>
>



-- 
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.


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