cc: Meric Srokosz <MAS@soc.soton.ac.uk>, Philip Newton <PPN@wpo.nerc.ac.uk>, Andy Parsons <apar@nerc.ac.uk>, <sand@nerc.ac.uk>
date: Thu May 20 12:40:54 2004
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: RAPID statement -round 2
to: Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk, <plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de>, <ewwo@bas.ac.uk>, <p.j.valdes@bris.ac.uk>, <r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk>, <marotzke@dkrz.de>, <mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk>, <haugan@gfi.uib.no>, <studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk>, <rwood@meto.gov.uk>, <sfbtett@meto.gov.uk>, <j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk>, <j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk>, <P.Challenor@soc.soton.ac.uk>, <a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk>, <Alex.Haxeltine@uea.ac.uk>, <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>, <lkeigwin@whoi.edu>, <maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk>, Christine Gommenginger <cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk>

   Probably OK , but I can see the influence of the diplomats . Personally ( and having not
   seen the film!) I think we could be harder , in the sense of emphasizing the massive over
   sensationalism (is there such a word?) .
   Keith
   At 12:13 20/05/2004, Sandy Tudhope wrote:

     Dear Christine,
     Looks fine, but I would endorse Simon's suggested change of "would" to
     "could".
     Cheers,
     Sandy
     On 20 May 2004, at 11:28, Christine Gommenginger wrote:
     Dear RAPID SC member,
     Given the anticipated interest in rapid climate change issues following next
     Friday's global release of the Day after Tomorrow Hollywood blockbuster
     movie, Meric and I have (with advice from our local communication officials)
     prepared a statement to post on the RAPID web site (see below).
     Our aim is to keep it brief - in fact it may already be too long. Please can
     you let me know asap of any absolute show-stoppers.
     My aim is to post it on our web page some time tomorrow (i.e. before the
     week-end).
     Many thanks,
     Christine
     The Day After Tomorrow - the latest Hollywood blockbuster movie by Roland
     Emmerich, maker of "Independence Day" - depicts an extreme rapid climate
     change event following the sudden shutdown of the North Atlantic overturning
     circulation due to global warming.
     Could this really happen?
     While the film is a classic action movie featuring hugely exaggerated events
     (total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than decades, tidal waves
     in New York flood the city and then turn into a massive ice block within
     hours), it does present some  genuine scientific information about ocean
     circulation, ice core sampling and past climate shifts. The film has been
     broadly welcomed by scientists as a way to raise awareness about the
     importance of climate change issues.
     The UK is taking the lead in rapid climate change research. A 20 Million
     Rapid Climate Change programme (known as RAPID for short) is being funded by
     the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The aim of RAPID is to
     determine the probability of rapid climate change and its likely impact. For
     the first time, a monitoring system is being set up to monitor changes in
     the North Atlantic overturning circulation (which is associated with but not
     quite the same as the Gulf Stream). The UK research vessel RRS Discovery has
     recently deployed an array of moorings across the N. Atlantic Ocean.
     Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next
     decade is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on
     Western European economy and society would be serious. Hence, we need to
     improve our knowledge of the processes involved and narrow the uncertainties
     on the prediction of potential future rapid climate change. That is exactly
     what the RAPID programme aims to do.
     _________________________________________________________
     Dr Christine Gommenginger
     Laboratory for Satellite Oceanography (LSO)
     James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate
     Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC)
     Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
     Tel (direct): +44 (0)2380 596411   Fax: +44 (0)2380 596400
     [1]http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/
     Assistant Science Co-ordinator for NERC RAPID Climate Change Programme
     [2]http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/
     _________________________________________________________
     __________________________________________
     Dr Sandy Tudhope,
     School of GeoSciences,
     Grant Institute,
     Edinburgh University,
     West Mains Road,
     Edinburgh EH9 3JW,
     Scotland, U.K.
     Tel:  +44 131 650 8508 (direct)
           +44 131 650 4842 (secretary)
     Fax:  +44 131 668 3184
     e-mail:  Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

