cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk
date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 11:15:12 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: paper in this Friday's Science
to: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>

   sure thing--thanks a  bunch Tim,
   Will not forward to anyone else.
   The paper looks great, the analysis is more or less what I surmised from the abstract/blurb
   that I received. As you're no doubt aware, you're sure to get some unwanted attention from
   the usual suspects, but the analysis seems clear and robust, and you haven't left much
   wiggle room for the contrarians, near as I can tell. So good luck!
   will forward you any email correspondences I have w/ press on this. Right now, I'm fielding
   questions from "National Geographic" (a very well known popular science magazine in the
   states),
   by the way, do you mind if we do a short RC post on this after the embargo breaks? We'll
   probably just provide the abstract and a link to the paper...
   mike
   p.s. not sure if you're aware, but Science is considering requiring VS04 to retract their
   article, and a comment pointing out a major error in their claimed implemention of MBH98 by
   Wahl, Amman, and Ritson is in press (I believe--would need to confirm w/ the authors) in
   Science. Will forward you more info when I have it. So the situation for VS04 is even worse
   than you allude to in your brief comments on this. Its completely wrong. Doesn't mean that
   calibration methods don't have potential systematic biases that need to be taken into
   account, but it does mean that VS04 is entirely irrelevant to any legitimate discussions of
   this...
   Tim Osborn wrote:

     Hi Mike,
     I am wary of Science's embargo, but I've included the *uncorrected* galleys for you to
     look at.  The corrections were only minor wording changes here and there (sometimes the
     copy-editor inadvertently changes the meaning!) so it gives you a 99% accurate idea of
     the whole paper.  Obviously, please don't pass it on to anyone.
     Cheers
     Tim
     At 15:48 07/02/2006, Michael E. Mann wrote:

     Dear Tim, Keith.
     Indeed, I'm already getting inquiries. I have the abstract to work w/ so I feel I can
     probably extrapolate a bit. In short, it sounds like you guys sorts of re-did "Soon and
     Baliunas", but you did it right! The conclusions sound similar to the
     Bradley/Diaz/Hughes Science perspective from a couple years back, but I take it you were
     more quantitative and rigorous (e.g. through the definition of appropriate thresholds).
     Anyway, let me know if you think there is anything else I need to know. Based on the
     info I have, I feel I'm pretty safe in giving the study a thumbs up in my press
     interviews.
     thanks, and congrats on the paper,
     mike
     Tim Osborn wrote:

     Hi everyone,
     I just wanted to give you advance notice that Keith and I have a paper appearing in
     Science on Friday (10th Feb) called:
     "The spatial extent of 20th century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years"
     I haven't got a copy of the paper to circulate to you yet (due to Science's embargo) but
     it is, as you can guess from the title, related to multi-proxy reconstructions.  I will
     send a PDF as soon as I have one.  In the meantime, I thought I'd let you know if case
     any media contact you (I guess this is more likely to be US Media) because Science has
     just made an embargoed press release today.
     [Martin & Anders - this is based on the analysis I showed you at the MITRIE meeting last
     summer]
     Cheers
     Tim
     Dr Timothy J Osborn
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   [1]t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

     --
     Michael E. Mann
     Associate Professor
     Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
     Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
     503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
     The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [4]mann@psu.edu
     University Park, PA 16802-5013
     [5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

     Dr Timothy J Osborn
     Climatic Research Unit
     School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
     Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
     e-mail:   [6]t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
     phone:    +44 1603 592089
     fax:      +44 1603 507784
     web:      [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
     sunclock: [8]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [9]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[10]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

