cc: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 18:54:37 +0100
from: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>
subject: Few remaining comments
to: Fortunat Joos <joos@climate.unibe.ch>

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Dear Fortunat, could you quickly address the comments i Keiths section?

Eystein




>Eystein
>can you also check that Fortunat is addressing 
>the few comments (ie revising the text) that 
>relate to his bit of my section and Henry 
>Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and 
>revise the text to do with the Ground Surface 
>Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and Peck 
>are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks
>
>At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote:
>>Hi,
>>I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times.
>>Cheers,
>>Eystein
>>
>>>thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel .
>>>Keith
>>>
>>>At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>>Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new 
>>>>figure is quite compelling, and a nice 
>>>>complement to the other two panels. I agree 
>>>>it would be good to get the Northern Hem 
>>>>Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him 
>>>>well enough to ask? (I never even met him, 
>>>>but could ask if you don't know him).
>>>>
>>>>What you have created will take some good 
>>>>work on the caption to explain, but it has my 
>>>>vote.
>>>>
>>>>What is your plan for dealing with the new 
>>>>German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are 
>>>>you sure these runs can't be worked in, 
>>>>perhaps as a new panel? At least we have 
>>>>Susan's support for the new runs, so we do 
>>>>what we have to do.
>>>>
>>>>As for work and time, we are running out. 
>>>>Just do the best you can, and hopefully the 
>>>>new section will emerge sometime next week.
>>>>
>>>>Highest priority (please do first) - we need 
>>>>3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by 
>>>>early next week:
>>>>
>>>>1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption
>>>>2) the fig you've attached to this email - 
>>>>with caption (were we going to try to put all 
>>>>the model runs/refs/color key into a table, 
>>>>so the caption could be shorter than in the 
>>>>FOD? Think this would be better, so caption 
>>>>is shorter)
>>>>3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model 
>>>>runs (update of the fig we showed for first 
>>>>time in ChCh - using a version of the lower 
>>>>panel you attached to this email - with 
>>>>caption
>>>>
>>>>There is little doubt you guys have the 
>>>>hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and 
>>>>possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work 
>>>>will have huge impact, and the extra effort 
>>>>is really appreciated well beyond me and 
>>>>Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time 
>>>>machine to make it easier, but... just keep 
>>>>plugging.
>>>>
>>>>thanks! Peck
>>>>
>>>>>Peck and Eystein
>>>>>we are having trouble to express the real 
>>>>>message of the reconstructions - being 
>>>>>scientifically sound in representing 
>>>>>uncertainty , while still getting the crux 
>>>>>of the information across clearly. It is not 
>>>>>right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing 
>>>>>this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a 
>>>>>total range as before) allows the 
>>>>>uncertainty to swamp the magnitude of the 
>>>>>changes through time .  We have settled on 
>>>>>this version (attached) of the Figure which 
>>>>>we hoe you will agree gets the message over 
>>>>>but with the rigor required for such an 
>>>>>important document.
>>>>>
>>>>>We have added a box to show the "probability 
>>>>>surface" for the most likely estimate of 
>>>>>past temperatures based on all published 
>>>>>data. By overlapping all reconstructions and 
>>>>>giving a score of 2 to all areas within the 
>>>>>1 standard error range of the estimates for 
>>>>>each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for 
>>>>>the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, 
>>>>>you build up a composite picture of the most 
>>>>>likely or "concensus"  path that 
>>>>>temperatures took over the last 1200 years 
>>>>>(note - now with a linear time axis). This 
>>>>>still shows the outlier ranges , preserving 
>>>>>all the information, but you see the central 
>>>>>most likely area well , and the comparison 
>>>>>of past and recent temperature levels is not 
>>>>>as influenced by the outlier estimates. What 
>>>>>do you think? We have experimented with 
>>>>>different versions of the shading and this 
>>>>>one shows up quite well  - but we may have 
>>>>>to use some all grey version as the 
>>>>>background to the overlay of the model 
>>>>>results.
>>>>>We have also experimented with changing the 
>>>>>normalisation base for the 
>>>>>model/reconstruction Figure , but using the 
>>>>>same short modern period as for the first 
>>>>>Figure is not satisfactory - more on this 
>>>>>later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as 
>>>>>many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL 
>>>>>curve - can you get the separate North and 
>>>>>Southern Hemisphere curves (with 
>>>>>uncertainty) . I do not see that the new 
>>>>>model runs from Germany/Switzerland will fit 
>>>>>easily in the existing Figure and need to be 
>>>>>separate! I am really struggling with the 
>>>>>text also - really need more time!!!! More 
>>>>>later
>>>>>Keith
>>>>>
>>>>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16
>>>>>>Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
>>>>>>To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>>From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>>Subject: new fig
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>>>>>>Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>>>>>>
>>>>>>e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>>>>>>phone:    +44 1603 592089
>>>>>>fax:      +44 1603 507784
>>>>>>web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>>>>>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
>>>>>
>>>>>--
>>>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>University of East Anglia
>>>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>>>
>>>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>>>
>>>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>>>>>
>>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh 
>>>>>HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /IC) 
>>>>>(0010B41B)
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>--
>>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>>
>>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>>
>>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>>University of Arizona
>>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>>>
>>>--
>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>
>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>
>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>>
>>
>>--
>>______________________________________________________________
>>Eystein Jansen
>>Professor/Director
>>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
>>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
>>Allgaten 55
>>N-5007 Bergen
>>NORWAY
>>e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
>>Phone:  +47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
>>Fax:    +47-55-584330
>
>--
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>
>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>
>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/


-- 
______________________________________________________________
Eystein Jansen
Professor/Director
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
Allgaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
NORWAY
e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no  
Phone:	+47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: 	+47-55-584330
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