date: Tue May  4 11:39:04 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: East African data
to: "David J. Thomson" <djt@mast.queensu.ca>

    David,
       Neither Keith Briffa nor I know of long paleo series for the Nile Basin. We also
    agree with you about the nonsense of a lot of the stuff on long cycles. Whilst
    you're working in this can you dispose of the Hurst phenomenon at the same
    time !  Heard some appalling talks on this in a session I stumbled on at the
    EGU.
       We have a lot of long daily series - look at the CRU web page (EMULATE project).
    I can send some of these when you have some time to look at them.
       Not coming to AGU - been away for the last 3 weeks, a mountain of email !
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 11:44 23/04/2004 -0400, you wrote:

     Phil,
             A student of mine, Scott Amiss, has been working on the Nile
     annual minimum levels (622 to 1284 AD). As you are probably aware, there
     has been a lot of stuff in the statistics literature using this data (plus
     your NH average temperature, etc.) as examples of ``long memory''
     processes.
     My feeling (and Scott's) is that the long memory stuff is mostly
     statistical nonsense. (To be fair, it does have some persistent features
     but the 18.6-year lunar cycle and the 208-year Suess wiggles are in a
     different category than ``fractionally integrated brownian noise''.)
     One of our goals is to attempt to restore some sanity to the
     statistics literature...
             The reason for writing is that Scott was looking for East
     African climate data that overlaps or extends the Nile record;
     so I was wondering if you have tree-ring or other proxy data from
     this part of the world, or know who does.
             I haven't forgotten your comments on the new European daily
     tmperature data, so will likely ask you for these one of these days.
             Apart from this, hope all is well, and that you had a better
     winter than the NE US and Canada did this year. Here it was cold but,
     fortunately, we didn't have it as bad as Boston, NY, or the Marimimes.
             I'm up to my ears building the solar radio telescope,
     trying to sort out solar and space data,  trying to write a book,
     working on tuning on some of the longer paleo records, etc...
             Are you coming over to Spring AGU? If so, see you there.
     Otherwise, if you get over this way, let us know and plan on a
     visit.
     Cheers
             David Thomson

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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