date: Wed, 05 Nov 2003 09:55:49 +0000
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: changes in the NH annual cycle
to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk

     Date: Wed, 05 Nov 2003 09:29:10 +0000
     To: Drew Shindell <dshindell@giss.nasa.gov>
     From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: Re: changes in the NH annual cycle
      Drew,
          Apologies for the reference problem. Got the title off one of the reviewers (Mike
     Mann) !
      Changed it in another article I'm doing with Mike - a review of paleo for Rev. Geophys.
      (submitted a few weeks ago).  Mike has been spending too much time with that ridiculous
      paper - still I think even he has been worn down by everything ! We may do some more on
      the E&E paper but let things settle for a while. We won't be auditing it, but trying to
     do
      something that will also have some useful science in it. Mike may have made one or two
      small mistakes, but nothing major. Skeptics seem to think that if you try and shoot one
     paper
      down then the rest will fall. Several other groups (including us) have got pretty much
     the same
      result given the uncertainties.  I'll forward an email from the editor of E&E - makes
     fun reading.
      Gavin and others might like to see it.  Doesn't seem to grasp the concept of good
     science !
      Seems to think we get results just because of who funds us - I just hope that this
     doesn't
      happen in other areas of science. The editor obviously has no idea how to write a
     paper,
      nor how hard it is to get proposals supported - we do have failed ones !
         The European and Chinese regions are relatively small even in NH terms, but I would
      reckon that if I were to regress averages for these two areas against NH temps the
     result
      wouldn't be too bad. So, I think what you propose is eminently reasonable. It is what I
     would
      support - we suggest that seasonal cycles in models should be tested and we think that
      different forcings should be distinguishable by their seasonal signatures.
         Do you want me to send you the series that went into Figs 1 and 2 in the paper? I
     would
      produce three groups (one for China - the N and E areas are a bit of a misnomer,
      one is north of the other) and then one for N. Europe and one for C. Europe. N Europe
     could
      combine the Fennoscandian series with the Dutch/CET ones, then the other could use the
      Italian stations with the Swiss and Czech.
         N.China is 35-45N, 110-120E and E. China 30-35N, 115-120E.  European sites/countries
      are basically what they say they are.  You could get 3 European regions if you split
     the
      Dutch/CET series from Fennoscandia.  C. Europe should involve the Swiss/Czech/Italian
     data.
        Apart from the Dutch series it is also possible to get the other 2 seasons as well.
     Spring
      will be OK, but for autumn there are generally few proxies, so this is the least good
     season
      for documentary data.
         Just reread your letter. Missed the last couple of sentences first time. I'll send
     the data
      and some details. Happy to work with you.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 14:43 04/11/2003 -0500, you wrote:

     Hello Phil,
       I hope you had a good trip home from Spain, and haven't had to spend too much time
     dealing with the ridiculous Energy & Environment paper (I'm sure Mike's outraged, given
     his temperment!).
     I enjoyed your talk in San Feliu, and downloaded your JGR paper when I got home. I've
     read it through, and wanted to run an idea by you. In your Figure 2, you show six of the
     very long-term records, and in the text you point out that "warmer periods are
     associated with lower summer/winter differences". I thought it would be interesting to
     see if the model would reproduce such behavior and perhaps compare with the data you
     show. Now I noticed that you specifically mention that given the limited amount of data,
     it's not appropriate to form a composite. Given that China is quite large, the northern
     and eastern sites could be quite far apart, and there are only two sites in any case. So
     I fully agree that for nearly the entire globe there's too little data to create any
     reasonable averages. What I wonder is about using the four European sites in a
     comparison with the GCM simulations specifically for Europe (i.e. the rectangle
     including England and the 3 central European sites). This covers enough of the model
     domain that I believe we could get statistically significant results for the regional
     average temperature response to forcing, though I haven't done the calculation yet.
     Basically I would use the simulations described in our new J. Climate paper for solar
     and volcanic forcings. What I did do so far is to create the summer/winter differences,
     and they are of the opposite sign for the response to solar and volcanic forcing. I have
     the change in the annual cycle per change annual average from the model, which could be
     the most useful quantity. Given that the sign is opposite between the two forcings, this
     seem interesting to me, and conceivably we could make at least a qualitative comparison
     with the 4 proxy records and it would still be valuable. Qualitative would probably be
     the most appropriate in any case, given that there are only 4 proxy records and that the
     forcing time series, especially for solar, is not well-calibrated. Since the proxy data
     and the simulations are already published, I would envision simply a short analysis of
     the comparison between them.  Do you think it'd be reasonable to use only 4 sites to in
     some sense represent regional European temperatures, and if so, would you be interested
     in providing the data from those 4 sites and/or in doing some analysis of this with me?
     Best wishes,
     Drew
     PS The reference to our J. Climate paper in your JGR has an incorrect title (Little Ice
     Age is too vague I feel). The paper is due out in the Dec 15 issue, and the full
     reference is:
     Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, R. L. Miller, and M. E. Mann, Volcanic and solar forcing
     of climate change during the preindustrial era, J. Climate, 16, 4094-4107, 2003.
     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
         Dr. Drew Shindell
         NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies
         2880 Broadway
         New York, NY  10025    USA
         Tel/Fax: (212) 678-5561
         email: dshindell@giss.nasa.gov
         [1]http://www.giss.nasa.gov/~dshindel/
     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     </blockquote></x-html>

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

