cc: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 08:53:57 -0400
from: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   p.s. regarding the CET issue, I realize that may not be our intent, but I'd hate for us to
   produce a graphic so easily misrepresented by the naysayers. We reallyneed to find a way to
   show the true current warmth on the scale, either throuh not dropping the end, or showing
   the raw annual series for comparison to the smoothed long-term curves,
   mike
   Phil Jones wrote:

      Mike, Gavin,
           On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of the annual CET record
      were omitted from the smoothed plot.  Tim's away, but when he did this with
      them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The purpose of the piece
      was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same. It wasn't
      to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the red/blue lines,
      as they are crap anyway.
           The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in the IPCC
      diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully back in or
      dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes quite
      a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is that CET
      has been so warm the last 20 years or so.
          Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the summer is
      lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year. Warmth
      in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds
      when it comes to warming.
        Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been written
      by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I will
      mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:

     Hi Phil,
     traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over. only 2 substantial
     comments:
     1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3 (bottom of page 52/page
     53), but the lack of acknowledgement here in this key summary that we actually
     introduced the idea of 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling.
     the end of the first sentence:
     - e.g., Zorita and Gonzlez-Rouco, 2002, Kttel et al., 2007),
     should be changed to:
     - e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and Gonzlez-Rouco, 2002, Rutherford et al,
     2003; Kttel et al., 2007),
     2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the description of smoothing in
     Appendix A Figure 1.  It sounds like the last 12 years were removed from the end of the
     series? If so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past decade that
     takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would suggest one of two alternative
     approaches:
     a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I don't see any objective
     justification for doing that) or
     b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how the most recent values
     compare w/ the MWP peak.
     By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press in GRL, I've attached.
     Please don't distribute or cite prior to publication (which should be one or two weeks
     from now).
     thanks,
     mike
     Phil Jones wrote:

     Dear All,
          Here's the revised version of the paper, together with the responses to the
     reviewers.
      We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him by the beginning
      of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next Monday is a national
      holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look through your
      parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week or over the
      weekend?
         Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and let me know of
      any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I think just look
      wrong?
         I hope you'll think of this as an improvement.
      Cheers
      Phil
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email:  [2]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

website:
[3]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
"Dire Predictions" book site:
[4]
http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [5]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology              Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building                    FAX:   (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University      email:  [6]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

website: [7]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
"Dire Predictions" book site: [8]http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,0
0.html

