cc: Alan Robock <robock@snowfall.envsci.rutgers.edu>
date: Wed Sep  1 09:04:23 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: temperature trend in Antarctic
to: Konstantin Vinnikov <kostya@atmos.umd.edu>

    Kostya,
       Here are two sets of time series. The first is what I've called Antarctica for years
   (all 5 deg
    boxes with data from 60-90 S). This is the one that is plotted in Jones and Moberg (2003)
   Figure 2.
    I've also calculated one for 65-90S and that is the second one attached.  Both are based
    only on land data - NO SSTs for the periphery in some summer months come in. You can take
    your pick which one you use.
       The series run from 1851, as the program calculates other continents. For the Antarctic
   the
    numbers are only useful from about 1956. Before this there were just a few stations in the
    Peninsula and one other location from the late-1940s. So ignore all lines from 1851 to
   1955.
    You only want data from 1978 (Nov) anyway. The final month is July 2004. The annual
   average
    for 2004 is wrong - it shouldn't use the last 5 zeroes.
      Thanks for alerting me to Alan's site.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 01:05 01/09/2004, Konstantin Vinnikov wrote:

     Dear Phil,
             I do not like my estimates of 1978-2004 trend for Antarctic from
     your gridded data. I am unable to average data properly. I would prefer to
     use your averaging for Antarctic. As I understand it is the area LAT>65S.
     I have your time series for Antarctic up to 2002.  Would you be so kind as
     to send me an updating.  I use all other data for the time interval from
     November 1978 to February 2004.
     Alan is working to convert our paper for Nature. He is at McMurdo in
     Antarctic. I looked through his Antarctic web site and did not see any
     warming at all. Trend in the Antarctic averages that you sent me ~a year
     ago was ~0.06 K/10 yr. It is twice less and more realistic compared to the
     trend estimate in our manuscript.
     I am working with seasonal-latitudinal distribution of the same trends,
     but my current estimates are very preliminary and very noisy, even for
     model simulations. It looks as if Zonal and Annual averaging of our data
     is more or less optimal for such a short period of observations.
     Yours, Kostya
     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov                   Office: (301) 405-5382
     Department of Meteorology                       Home: (301) 779-2970
     University of Maryland                           Fax: (301) 314-9482
     College Park, MD  20742                 E-mail: kostya@atmos.umd.edu

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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