cc: <jan.esper@wsl.ch>, "'David Frank'" <david.frank@wsl.ch>, "'michele'" <m.brunetti@isac.cnr.it>, "'Maurizio Maugeri'" <maurizio.maugeri@unimi.it>, "'"'Wolfgang Schner'"'" <wolfgang.schoener@zamg.ac.at>, "'Kurt Nicolussi'" <kurt.nicolussi@uibk.ac.at>, "'Michael Grabner'" <michael.grabner@boku.ac.at>
date: Wed, 14 Feb 2007 18:08:11 +0100
from: "Reinhard Boehm" <Reinhard.Boehm@zamg.ac.at>
subject: AW: AW: 
to: "'Phil Jones'" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, "'Reinhard Boehm'" <Reinhard.Boehm@zamg.ac.at>

   Phil,


   Fine, Wolfgang and I have reserved Monday, 16^th April 2007 for early instrumental
   discussion in Vienna. We hope to have then a "version 2 instrumental dataset" ready for use
   and some comparisons with glaciers.  Of course anybody else from the EI-group participating
   at the EGU is welcome too.


   Right now only some clarifications:

   1)       version 2 homogenising: We want to homogenise all early t-series, not only the
   cold ones - but we intend to more likely use  the cold ones as reference and less the
   majority (as we did so far). We will then see what the results will be.

   2)       The mass balance modelling: We will use (and Wolfgang has already done so, but
   with the "warm" early temperatures and with too negative MB-results in the early 19^th
   century) HISTALP monthly  temperatures, Dimitrios' 10'-precip - both adjusted to a finer
   orography (necessary to better represent the glaciers). Using our (non linear tanh-)
   relation between monthly mean temperature and the percentage of solid precipitation we then
   calculate the real monthly amounts of snow- and of liquid precipitation at the glaciers
   (for all months, not only for winter - summer snowfall have a strong influence via the
   albedo, winter precip is not very effective, as we learned from our 25 years summer and
   winter mass balancing in the Sonnblick region). .... at the end Wolfgang could reproduce
   pretty well already measured mass balances of alpine glaciers in recent years - therefore
   we assume that the (expected) positive mass balances based on the "cold" HISTALP version
   should be kind of an independent argument in deciding between the warm and the cold version
   of HISTALP summer temperatures.

   Please note that the differentiation between solid and liquid precip is not trivial due to
   the non-linearity of the precip[solid] (temp) function

   3)       Going the "number 2 homogenising"-path we do not directly include the
   treering-evidence, but we hope at the end to come nearer to the early TR-evidence that with
   the warm instrumental version.


   Cheers


   Reinhard and Wolfgang


   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   Von: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
   Gesendet: Mittwoch, 14. Februar 2007 17:17
   An: Reinhard Boehm
   Cc: jan.esper@wsl.ch; 'David Frank'; 'michele'; 'Maurizio Maugeri'; "'Wolfgang Schner'";
   'Kurt Nicolussi'; 'Michael Grabner'
   Betreff: Re: AW:


    Reinhard,
       Some thoughts. Obviously possibility 2 is the right way
    to go scientifically. Have you considered developing an Alpine
    series based just on the cooler stations (like Kremsmunster, Basle
    and Geneva and one or two others?  Then try this with the glacier
    modelling. In the latter, there is likely to be much sensitivity to
    snowfall amounts, so you could test what addition precip you might
    need to get the glaciers at the right positions and right times, so
    it is play-off between summer T and winter P. The latter could have
    serious undercatch problems, which you've done your best to allow
    for. I guess I'm saying can you determine what you need to do to
    T and P to get agreement - sort of 2D surface.
       I have many things on between now and the EGU, so I look forward to
    discussing it more in Vienna.  I'll only be there for the first two days. On
    the Tuesday pm I'll be going out to dinner with the Hans Oeschger
    medallist, and I have to run CL28 most of the day, so can we get together
    on the Monday?
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:51 13/02/2007, Reinhard Boehm wrote:

   Phil,

   As you proposed earlier, I also think we should first concentrate on the early instrumental
   topic, produce an alternative version of early temperatures and then proceed with the WP-9
   paper.

   Concerning the early temperatures I (and also you I suppose?) received a number of treering
   series  from David Frank which should be  useful to at least have a good basis from this
   kind of summer data. I myself am just having a look in my spare-time on hourly temperature
   comparisons of the two Kremsmnster sites - leading at the end to much more information on
   possible biases. This will be useful as an argument for a "colder alternative" for early
   instrumental temperature series. I still have not made up my mind on how to proceed then:
   There are two possibilities:
   1)       simply adjust all early series in the same way (like I did in the example I sent
   some time ago) - this would be easier and would lead to homogeneous results
   2)       try to re-homogenize the whole early temperature series station by station, using
   the "colder stations" like Basle, Geneva, Kremsmnster, and one or two Italian sites as
   reference.
   The second alternative would be "scientifically more correct" but I am not sure whether
   there will get a solution leading to a satisfying state in terms of homogeneity tests and
   fit as well to the treering series.

   In any case I do not plan to completely withdraw the "summer-warm solution" we have now, I
   only want to add another alternative (could be called a TR-version) which will somehow
   stand for a rather summer-cold early period. The two together will then span a range within
   which real climate should be supposed to be.
   At last Wolfgang and I will try to produce some glacier mass balance series for the early
   period calculated with the HISTALP temp and precip series - here we believe that the
   summer-cold version will produce results nearer to the glacier evidence we have (with
   positive mass balances for most of the early 19^th century - necessary to explain the
   massive advances in the 1810s and 1840s). We have already tried it for the uncorrected
   early temperatures, it did not work, so the final conclusion will be in favour of colder
   early instrumental summer temperatures I suppose.

   Anyway, it would be fine to discuss this at the occasion of your stay in Vienna at the EGU
   Since then we should have all the calculations done and can decide on what to finally write
   in which paper...

   Cheers

   Reinhard

   P.S. I send this for information also to the treering group and the others concerned
   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   Von: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
   Gesendet: Dienstag, 13. Februar 2007 11:31
   An: Reinhard Boehm
   Betreff: Re:

    Reinhard,
       Not sure where we are on the paper from WP-9. I've been too busy
    with IPCC up the end of last week. I have quite a bit of travel during
    March, so may not be able to make much progress. We need to try
    and come to some sort of agreement on how to proceed.
      I will be in Vienna for the first 2 days of the EGU meeting.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 14:08 10/01/2007, you wrote:
   Dear early instrumentalists,

   I pass on two things to the "plenum" in charge of the early instrumental adjustment:

   1)       David and I agreed yesterday on a 2 weeks "moratorium" until the next and definite
   resolutions about adjusting the early instrumental temperature series. The TR-group is
   going to use this time to agree upon which TR-series (or which sample of different
   TR-reconstructions) should be used best as the "warm-season TR-reference". This may be a
   single reco, a mean of some recos or (best) a mean plus error bars. I am going to use the
   time to produce some more information on our Kremsmnster comparison (taking into account
   Phil's question about the way of calculating the means).

   2)       Some of You have already got a preliminary version of a Diploma thesis on the
   early instrumental problem. Johann Hiebl has sent us today the definite version he
   submitted yesterday (already containing the pre-reviews of Anders Moberg, Wolfgang Schner
   and myself). I think it is, for a diploma thesis, a quite "mature" piece of work which is
   closely related to our topic and may be well usable for our little paper. Please use it
   confidentially for the time being, because it has not been formally approved yet. I would
   like to draw your attention to the chapter dealing with the ERIK-model run of the GKSS
   guys. Do you think this to be adviseble for our purposes too? It would be kind of an
   independent information, but I am somewhat sceptical whether we should use such a
   "reconstruction". Anyway I ask Phil if the colleagues from the Hadley centre can also
   contribute such a model run and his opinion on it.

   Best regards

   Reinhard
   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

