cc: "Myles Allen" <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>, <C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk>, "Bryden, Clare" <clare.bryden@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC)" <kathryn.humphrey@defra.gsi.gov.uk>, "Sampson, Jo (DECC - ACC)" <Joanna.Sampson@decc.gsi.gov.uk>, "Warrilow, David (DECC - CEOSA)" <David.Warrilow@decc.gsi.gov.uk>, "Meah, Nafees (DECC)" <Nafees.Meah@decc.gsi.gov.uk>, "Roger Street" <roger.street@ukcip.org.uk>, "Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science)" <john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Pope, Vicky" <vicky.pope@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Murphy, James" <james.murphy@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Sexton, David" <david.sexton@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Collins, Matthew" <matthew.collins@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Harris, Glen" <glen.harris@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Booth, Ben" <ben.booth@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Lowe, Jason" <jason.lowe@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Jason Holt" <jholt@pol.ac.uk>, <jwolf@pol.ac.uk>, "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, "C G Kilsby" <c.g.kilsby@newcastle.ac.uk>, "Nigel Arnell" <n.w.arnell@reading.ac.uk>, <alberto.montanari@unibo.it>, <elaine.barrow@sasktel.net>, "Carter Tim" <tim.carter@ymparisto.fi>, "Wells N.C." <n.c.wells@soton.ac.uk>, "jaak monbaliu" <jaak.monbaliu@bwk.kuleuven.be>, <corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no>
date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:31:18 -0000
from: "Hoskins, Brian J" <b.hoskins@imperial.ac.uk>
subject: RE: urgent -- RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review
to: "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca>, "claudia tebaldi" <claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com>, "Watson, Robert (SEG)" <Robert.Watson@defra.gsi.gov.uk>

   Bob

   I am coming into this after a load of meetings.

   Claudia has said roughly what I would have said.

   I have now gone through with Clare a version of our report which takes account of all the
   Reviewers' suggestions, but it has as yet no change on this point. I should now like to go
   back to the Reviewers with the concerns that Nafees and you have on this sentence and
   discuss our final, agreed version.

   Best wishes

   Brian


   From: Zwiers,Francis [Ontario] [mailto:francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca]
   Sent: 20 January 2009 14:35
   To: claudia tebaldi; Watson, Robert (SEG)
   Cc: Myles Allen; C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk; Hoskins, Brian J; Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn
   (ACC); Sampson, Jo (DECC - ACC); Warrilow, David (DECC - CEOSA); Meah, Nafees (DECC); Roger
   Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science); Pope, Vicky; Murphy, James;
   Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris, Glen; Booth, Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff;
   Jason Holt; jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil Jones; C G Kilsby; Nigel Arnell;
   alberto.montanari@unibo.it; elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells N.C.; jaak
   monbaliu; corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: RE: urgent -- RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop


   Dear Bob, Claudia,


   I think Claudia's interpretation concerning the intent is correct. On its own, it does
   invite misinterpretation I think. One simple solution would be to remove the paragraph
   break between "not possible at this time." and "There is a cascade...".  Another solution
   would be to deleted the 2nd half of the last sentence of paragraph 2 "and in some respects
   was not possible at this time" and also to remove the paragraph break.  The wording of the
   first half of that sentence already hints that the challenge was large and that there were
   limits in the extent to which the provider could respond to the request.


   Cheers, Francis


   ps - I'm be leavnig for Boulder in a couple of hours.


   Francis Zwiers
   Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
   4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4
   Phone: 416 739 4767,  Fax 416 739 5700


   ___________________________________________________________________________________________

   From: claudia tebaldi [mailto:claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com]
   Sent: January 20, 2009 7:28 AM
   To: Watson, Robert (SEG)
   Cc: Myles Allen; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk; Hoskins, Brian J; Bryden,
   Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo (DECC - ACC); Warrilow, David (DECC - CEOSA);
   Meah, Nafees (DECC); Roger Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science); Pope,
   Vicky; Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris, Glen; Booth, Ben; Lowe,
   Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt; jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil Jones; C G Kilsby; Nigel Arnell;
   alberto.montanari@unibo.it; elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells N.C.; jaak
   monbaliu; corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: Re: urgent -- RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop

   Dear Robert,
   I think the sentence should be read in the light of the following paragraph, where a
   cascade of confidence is mentioned.
   Our expectations about the robustness of the PDFs, considering what we trust GCMs to be
   good at, at this point in time, invite us to be cautious in front of this results, for
   example keeping in mind that development in the science and the methodology will likely
   change the shape and range of these PDFs.
   I think the very last sentence just refers to the fact that for some variable, i.e., winds,
   the developers of the method decided it was not possible to characterize their uncertainty
   at all.
   That is my interpretation of the paragraph that gives you pause. Maybe a more precise
   wording taking the place of "in some respects" could help. Maybe a more explicit link of
   the two paragraphs could help too -- I will let others comment on that.
   I know Myles is traveling to the US at this time and won't be in email contact for a few
   hours.
   The same may be true of Francis -- they are coming to Boulder/NCAR for the same meeting.
   I'm sure they will be able to comment on this by tonight or tomorrow morning.

   best regards
   claudia

   On Tue, Jan 20, 2009 at 1:15 AM, Watson, Robert (SEG) <[1]Robert.Watson@defra.gsi.gov.uk>
   wrote:

   Dear colleagues
   Could someone explain exactly what the last sentence in the following
   paragraph was meant to mean, i.e., the sentence starting "Trying to
   fulfil .......  I interpret the sentence as saying the panel does not
   believe the analysis at all - hence none of the probabilistic analyses
   can be trusted because it not only stretched the ability of current
   climate science but it was actually not possible - this sentence will be
   used by sceptics to argue that the projections are useless and should
   not be used - is that what is meant???
   Bob
   In response to user request, the scope of the UKCP commission included
   the quantification of uncertainty, taking account of climate models from
   centres other than the MetO Hadley Centre, inclusion of new developments
   such as carbon cycle feedback, and the production of daily data on a 5km
   grid. Trying to fulfil this scope stretched the ability of current
   climate science and methodology, and in some respects was not possible
   at this time.
   -----Original Message-----
   From: Myles Allen [mailto:[2]allen@atm.ox.ac.uk]
   Sent: 20 January 2009 06:52
   To: Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; [3]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk
   Cc: Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo (DECC - ACC);
   Watson, Robert (SEG); Warrilow, David (DECC - CEOSA); Meah, Nafees
   (DECC); Roger Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science);
   Pope, Vicky; Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris,
   Glen; Booth, Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt;
   [4]jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil Jones; C G Kilsby; claudia tebaldi; Nigel Arnell;
   [5]alberto.montanari@unibo.it; [6]elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells
   N.C.; jaak monbaliu; [7]corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop
   Dear Francis,
   That sounds fine -- and even brings us back close to Brian's original
   word-count. Revision enclosed.
   If there is space, I don't think we lose anything by keeping "perhaps
   like that used in the Marine Report" since it is clear that is just an
   example of what we mean.
   Myles
   -----Original Message-----
   From: Zwiers,Francis [Ontario] [mailto:[8]francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca]
   Sent: 20 January 2009 01:54
   To: Myles Allen; [9]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk
   Cc: Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo (ACC); Watson,
   Robert (SEG); Warrilow, David (CEOSA); Meah, Nafees (DECC); Roger
   Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science); Pope, Vicky;
   Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris, Glen; Booth,
   Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt; [10]jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil
   Jones; C G Kilsby; claudia tebaldi; Nigel Arnell;
   [11]alberto.montanari@unibo.it; [12]elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells
   N.C.; jaak monbaliu; [13]corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop
   Hi all,
   I'm ok with the wording in this 2nd version. My suggestion would be to
   end the first sentence of the "In view of these risks" paragragh at the
   first comma, and to delete the remaining part "closer to conventional
   ...". I don't think we should dictate how they do this (they do have the
   marine example to follow in any case). I would also replace
   "conservative methodologies" with "traditional methodologies", which is
   I think what we mean. I also suggest replacing "conservative" with
   "traditional" near the end of the paragraph that starts with "The
   guidance given ...".
   Cheers, Francis
   Francis Zwiers
   Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
   4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4
   Phone: 416 739 4767,  Fax 416 739 5700
   -----Original Message-----
   From: Myles Allen [mailto:[14]allen@atm.ox.ac.uk]
   Sent: January 19, 2009 5:37 PM
   To: [15]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk
   Cc: Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo (ACC); Watson,
   Robert (SEG); Warrilow, David (CEOSA); Meah, Nafees (DECC); Roger
   Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science); Pope, Vicky;
   Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris, Glen; Booth,
   Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt; [16]jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil
   Jones; C G Kilsby; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; claudia tebaldi; Nigel
   Arnell; [17]alberto.montanari@unibo.it; [18]elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter
   Tim; Wells N.C.; jaak monbaliu; [19]corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop
   Dear Clare,
   That sentence was intended to be helpful, but if it isn't, then given
   the aim of keeping the report as brief as possible, perhaps you're right
   we should just leave it out. Second revision enclosed.
   Myles
   -----Original Message-----
   From: [20]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk [mailto:[21]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk]
   Sent: 19 January 2009 22:28
   To: Myles Allen
   Cc: Clare Goodess; Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo
   (ACC); Watson, Robert (SEG); Warrilow, David (CEOSA); Meah, Nafees
   (DECC); Roger Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science);
   Pope, Vicky; Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris,
   Glen; Booth, Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt;
   [22]jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil Jones; C G Kilsby; [23]francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca;
   claudia tebaldi; Nigel Arnell; [24]alberto.montanari@unibo.it;
   [25]elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells N.C.; jaak monbaliu;
   [26]corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   Subject: RE: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop
   Dear all
   I feel that this sentence proposed by Myles "If necessary, sample
   results from the more conservative methodology could be provided at the
   time of launch on condition that a firm commitment was made, with the
   necessary resources, to provide this option in full as soon as
   possible." goes somewhat further than what the reviewers discussed and
   agreed during the meeting.  In particular we did not all discuss and
   agree on setting conditions and asking for firm committments, although I
   recall Myles mentioning the need for additional resources. There was I
   think a general consensus on the value of providing some comparative
   examples with the launch material. But, personally, I would prefer to
   keep the wording proposed by Brian.
   Best wishes, Clare
   > Dear Clare and Brian,
   >
   >
   >
   > I have always tended to use a Hawaiian interpretation of "close of
   > play". Hope this nevertheless arrives in time to be useful.
   >
   >
   >
   > I can't remember exactly what was on the screen, but it seems to me
   that
   > we were recommending that, in view of the risks mentioned in the use
   of
   > a relatively untested and unpublished method, users should also be
   > provided with an alternative based on a more conservative methodology
   > such as that used by the IPCC, not just that consideration should be
   > given to the usefulness of such an alternative. That was certainly my
   > recommendation. If it is helpful, we can add that the consensus seemed
   > to be that it wouldn't be necessary to have this available in full at
   > the time of launch, but that an explanation of the alternative (and
   its
   > shortcomings) together with some comparative examples, accompanied by
   a
   > firm commitment (adequately resourced - meaning not just asking the HC
   > team to do more work in less time) to release it as soon as possible,
   > would be OK.
   >
   >
   >
   > I have suggested a revision to Clare Goodess' edits, enclosed. If
   anyone
   > wants to contact me, please try 07776 306691 tomorrow morning (flight
   to
   > Denver leaves shortly after 12).
   >
   >
   >
   > Regards,
   >
   >
   >
   > Myles
   >
   >
   >
   > ________________________________
   >
   > From: Clare Goodess [mailto:[27]C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk]
   > Sent: 19 January 2009 17:50
   > To: Bryden, Clare; Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC); Sampson, Jo (ACC); Watson,
   > Robert (SEG); Warrilow, David (CEOSA); Meah, Nafees (DECC); Roger
   > Street; Mitchell, John FB (Director of Climate Science); Pope, Vicky;
   > Murphy, James; Sexton, David; Collins, Matthew; Harris, Glen; Booth,
   > Ben; Lowe, Jason; Jenkins, Geoff; Jason Holt; [28]jwolf@pol.ac.uk; Phil
   > Jones; C G Kilsby; Myles Allen; [29]francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca; claudia
   > tebaldi; Nigel Arnell; [30]alberto.montanari@unibo.it;
   > [31]elaine.barrow@sasktel.net; Carter Tim; Wells N.C.; jaak monbaliu;
   > [32]corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no
   > Subject: Re: Report from UK Climate Projections Review Workshop
   >
   >
   >
   > Dear Clare and Brian
   >
   > Please find attached some minor comments on the draft report.
   >
   > Best wishes, Clare
   >
   > At 11:27 15/01/2009, Bryden, Clare wrote:
   >
   >
   >
   >
   > Dear All
   >
   > Please find attached Brian's draft report from the workshop.  Please
   > could you respond with any changes and comments by close of play on
   > Monday, allowing him one day to review them before Defra's wash-up
   > meeting on Wednesday.  If any member of the Review Group finds this
   > timing impossible, please let Brian and me know the earliest you could
   > manage.
   >
   > Please also find attached my notes from the workshop, as requested by
   > some of the reviewers.  They were intended to document comments and
   > discussions not covered directly by the presentations.  They are still
   > very much in note form, and I must attach a major health warning to
   the
   > notes of the more technical discussions.
   >
   > Note that these, as all other documents associated with the review,
   are
   > to be treated as confidential.
   > <<Report UKCP Review draft 1.doc>>
   > <<UKCP09_Workshop_Notes_20090114.doc>>
   > Best regards
   > Clare
   >
   > ---
   > Clare Bryden   Climate Business Manager
   > Met Office FitzRoy Road  Exeter  EX1 3PB  United Kingdom
   > Tel: +44 (0)1392 884834   Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681   Mobile: 07717
   156452
   >
   > E-mail: [33]clare.bryden@metoffice.gov.uk  [34]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
   > <[35]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/> Please note that I work four days a
   > week, Monday-Thursday.
   >
   > (c) Crown Copyright 2009.  Produced by the Met Office.
   > New Met Office Climate Change Seminars - plan today to safeguard your
   > future success [36]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/training/climatechange
   >
   > Dr Clare Goodess
   > Climatic Research Unit
   > School of Environmental Sciences
   > University of East Anglia
   > Norwich
   > NR4 7TJ
   > UK
   >
   > Tel: +44 -1603 592875
   > Fax: +44 -1603 507784
   > Web: [37]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
   >          [38]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >
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   --
   Claudia Tebaldi
   Research Scientist, Climate Central
   [39]http://www.climatecentral.org
   currently visiting IMAGe/NCAR
   PO Box 3000
   Boulder, CO 80305
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