cc: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 10:36:09 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: Fwd: new fig
to: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.no>

<x-flowed>
Great, thanks! Since that fig is TS bound, it 
would be ideal to get the data to Keith/Tim by 
early next week. Thx again! Peck

>Hi,
>I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times.
>Cheers,
>Eystein
>
>>thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel .
>>Keith
>>
>>At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new 
>>>figure is quite compelling, and a nice 
>>>complement to the other two panels. I agree it 
>>>would be good to get the Northern Hem 
>>>Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him well 
>>>enough to ask? (I never even met him, but 
>>>could ask if you don't know him).
>>>
>>>What you have created will take some good work 
>>>on the caption to explain, but it has my vote.
>>>
>>>What is your plan for dealing with the new 
>>>German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are 
>>>you sure these runs can't be worked in, 
>>>perhaps as a new panel? At least we have 
>>>Susan's support for the new runs, so we do 
>>>what we have to do.
>>>
>>>As for work and time, we are running out. Just 
>>>do the best you can, and hopefully the new 
>>>section will emerge sometime next week.
>>>
>>>Highest priority (please do first) - we need 3 
>>>TS-contender figures (and captions) by early 
>>>next week:
>>>
>>>1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption
>>>2) the fig you've attached to this email - 
>>>with caption (were we going to try to put all 
>>>the model runs/refs/color key into a table, so 
>>>the caption could be shorter than in the FOD? 
>>>Think this would be better, so caption is 
>>>shorter)
>>>3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model 
>>>runs (update of the fig we showed for first 
>>>time in ChCh - using a version of the lower 
>>>panel you attached to this email - with caption
>>>
>>>There is little doubt you guys have the 
>>>hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and 
>>>possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work will 
>>>have huge impact, and the extra effort is 
>>>really appreciated well beyond me and Eystein. 
>>>I wish we could offer up a time machine to 
>>>make it easier, but... just keep plugging.
>>>
>>>thanks! Peck
>>>
>>>>Peck and Eystein
>>>>we are having trouble to express the real 
>>>>message of the reconstructions - being 
>>>>scientifically sound in representing 
>>>>uncertainty , while still getting the crux of 
>>>>the information across clearly. It is not 
>>>>right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing 
>>>>this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a 
>>>>total range as before) allows the uncertainty 
>>>>to swamp the magnitude of the changes through 
>>>>time .  We have settled on this version 
>>>>(attached) of the Figure which we hoe you 
>>>>will agree gets the message over but with the 
>>>>rigor required for such an important document.
>>>>
>>>>We have added a box to show the "probability 
>>>>surface" for the most likely estimate of past 
>>>>temperatures based on all published data. By 
>>>>overlapping all reconstructions and giving a 
>>>>score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard 
>>>>error range of the estimates for each 
>>>>reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the 
>>>>area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you 
>>>>build up a composite picture of the most 
>>>>likely or "concensus"  path that temperatures 
>>>>took over the last 1200 years (note - now 
>>>>with a linear time axis). This still shows 
>>>>the outlier ranges , preserving all the 
>>>>information, but you see the central most 
>>>>likely area well , and the comparison of past 
>>>>and recent temperature levels is not as 
>>>>influenced by the outlier estimates. What do 
>>>>you think? We have experimented with 
>>>>different versions of the shading and this 
>>>>one shows up quite well  - but we may have to 
>>>>use some all grey version as the background 
>>>>to the overlay of the model results.
>>>>We have also experimented with changing the 
>>>>normalisation base for the 
>>>>model/reconstruction Figure , but using the 
>>>>same short modern period as for the first 
>>>>Figure is not satisfactory - more on this 
>>>>later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as 
>>>>many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL 
>>>>curve - can you get the separate North and 
>>>>Southern Hemisphere curves (with uncertainty) 
>>>>. I do not see that the new model runs from 
>>>>Germany/Switzerland will fit easily in the 
>>>>existing Figure and need to be separate! I am 
>>>>really struggling with the text also - really 
>>>>need more time!!!! More later
>>>>Keith
>>>>
>>>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16
>>>>>Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
>>>>>To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>From: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
>>>>>Subject: new fig
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>>>>>Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>>>>>
>>>>>e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>>>>>phone:    +44 1603 592089
>>>>>fax:      +44 1603 507784
>>>>>web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>>>>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
>>>>
>>>>--
>>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>University of East Anglia
>>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>>
>>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>>
>>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>>>>
>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh 
>>>>HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /IC) 
>>>>(0010B41B)
>>>
>>>
>>>--
>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>
>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>
>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>University of Arizona
>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
>>
>>--
>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>Climatic Research Unit
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>
>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>
>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
>
>
>--
>______________________________________________________________
>Eystein Jansen
>Professor/Director
>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
>Allgaten 55
>N-5007 Bergen
>NORWAY
>e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
>Phone:	+47-55-583491  -  Home: +47-55-910661
>Fax:	+47-55-584330


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
</x-flowed>
