date: Thu, 27 Sep 2007 11:19:28 +0100
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Science paper 
to: "Ogden Annie Ms \(MAC\)" <A.Ogden@uea.ac.uk>, "Briffa Keith Prof \(ENV\)" <K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk>

    Annie,
       We were both away yesterday. Keith is still. I'm back though and will
    be here tomorrow. Away all next week, by the way.
       I can see how the sentences in the abstract will be easily misused.
    Article has nothing to do with the present though - lots of features 18,000
    years ago were quite different!
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 14:59 26/09/2007, Ogden Annie Ms \(MAC\) wrote:

     Dear Phil and Keith,
     Please see message below re attached a paper from Science which Chemistry World is
     asking if you would comment on. I gather you are both out of the office today so have
     told the journalist that you are unlikely to pick this up in time - but, on the
     offchance that you do, please feel free to send your comment to Simon direct.
     Best, Annie
     -------------------------------
     Annie Ogden, Head of Communications,
     University of East Anglia,
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ.
     Tel:+44 (0)1603 592764
     [1]http://comm.uea.ac.uk/press
     ............................................
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Simon Hadlington [[2] mailto:simon@hadlington.plus.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 2:08 PM
     To: Press Office
     Subject: fao Annie
     Importance: High
     Annie


     re Chemistry World.

     here is the embargoed paper that is due to appear on the science website on friday and
     below is the press blurb that came with it. Chemistry World will be running a piece on
     the work and it would be very nice to have a few sentences from an independent third
     party - ie hopefully someone from your climate change research centre - to say why the
     work is significant. I'm happy to speak with someone or else equally happy to receive
     four or five sentences in an email. Presumably the work could be grist to the mill of
     the global warming sceptics - is there any reason why it shouldn't be?

     Chemistry World wants to get something out to coincide with the embargo being lifted, so
     really I'd need something by 10am at the latest tomorrow morning. If you could let me
     know within the next couple of hours if you've found anyone that would be great.

     thanks

     best wishes

     Simon
     Simon Hadlington
     freelance science journalist
     Derwent House
     Main Street
     Thorganby
     York YO19 6DA



     [3]http://www.eurekalert.org/emb_releases/2007-09/uosc-cdd092507.php

     Carbon dioxide did not end the last Ice Age
     Deep-sea temperatures rose 1,300 years before atmospheric CO2, ruling out the greenhouse
     gas as driver of meltdown, says study in Science.
     Lowell Stott, professor of earth sciences, University of Southern California
     Click here for more information.

     Carbon dioxide did not cause the end of the last ice age, a new study in Science
     suggests, contrary to past inferences from ice core records.

     There has been this continual reference to the correspondence between CO2 and climate
     change as reflected in ice core records as justification for the role of CO2 in climate
     change, said USC geologist Lowell Stott, lead author of the study, slated for advance
     online publication Sept. 27 in Science Express.

     You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused the end of the ice ages.

     Deep-sea temperatures warmed about 1,300 years before the tropical surface ocean and
     well before the rise in atmospheric CO2, the study found. The finding suggests the rise
     in greenhouse gas was likely a result of warming and may have accelerated the meltdown
     but was not its main cause.

     The study does not question the fact that CO2 plays a key role in climate.
     Lowell Stott, professor of earth sciences at the University of Southern California,
     examines a sediment core.
     Click here for more information.

     I dont want anyone to leave thinking that this is evidence that CO2 doesnt affect
     climate, Stott cautioned. It does, but the important point is that CO2 is not the
     beginning and end of climate change.

     While an increase in atmospheric CO2 and the end of the ice ages occurred at roughly the
     same time, scientists have debated whether CO2 caused the warming or was released later
     by an already warming sea.

     The best estimate from other studies of when CO2 began to rise is no earlier than 18,000
     years ago. Yet this study shows that the deep sea, which reflects oceanic temperature
     trends, started warming about 19,000 years ago.

     What this means is that a lot of energy went into the ocean long before the rise in
     atmospheric CO2, Stott said.

     But where did this energy come from" Evidence pointed southward.

     Waters salinity and temperature are properties that can be used to trace its origin and
     the warming deep water appeared to come from the Antarctic Ocean, the scientists wrote.

     This water then was transported northward over 1,000 years via well-known deep-sea
     currents, a conclusion supported by carbon-dating evidence.

     In addition, the researchers noted that deep-sea temperature increases coincided with
     the retreat of Antarctic sea ice, both occurring 19,000 years ago, before the northern
     hemispheres ice retreat began.

     Finally, Stott and colleagues found a correlation between melting Antarctic sea ice and
     increased springtime solar radiation over Antarctica, suggesting this might be the
     energy source.

     As the sun pumped in heat, the warming accelerated because of sea-ice albedo feedbacks,
     in which retreating ice exposes ocean water that reflects less light and absorbs more
     heat, much like a dark T-shirt on a hot day.

     In addition, the authors model showed how changed ocean conditions may have been
     responsible for the release of CO2 from the ocean into the atmosphere, also accelerating
     the warming.

     The link between the sun and ice age cycles is not new. The theory of Milankovitch
     cycles states that periodic changes in Earths orbit cause increased summertime sun
     radiation in the northern hemisphere, which controls ice size.

     However, this study suggests that the pace-keeper of ice sheet growth and retreat lies
     in the southern hemispheres spring rather than the northern hemispheres summer.

     The conclusions also underscore the importance of regional climate dynamics, Stott said.
     Here is an example of how a regional climate response translated into a global climate
     change, he explained.

     Stott and colleagues arrived at their results by studying a unique sediment core from
     the western Pacific composed of fossilized surface-dwelling (planktonic) and
     bottom-dwelling (benthic) organisms.

     These organisms foraminifera incorporate different isotopes of oxygen from ocean water
     into their calcite shells, depending on the temperature. By measuring the change in
     these isotopes in shells of different ages, it is possible to reconstruct how the deep
     and surface ocean temperatures changed through time.

     If CO2 caused the warming, one would expect surface temperatures to increase before
     deep-sea temperatures, since the heat slowly would spread from top to bottom. Instead,
     carbon-dating showed that the water used by the bottom-dwelling organisms began warming
     about 1,300 years before the water used by surface-dwelling ones, suggesting that the
     warming spread bottom-up instead.

     The climate dynamic is much more complex than simply saying that CO2 rises and the
     temperature warms, Stott said. The complexities have to be understood in order to
     appreciate how the climate system has changed in the past and how it will change in the
     future.

     ###

     Stotts collaborators were Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii and Robert Thunell
     of the University of South Carolina. Stott was supported by the National Science
     Foundation and Timmerman by the International Pacific Research Center.

     Stott is an expert in paleoclimatology and was a reviewer for the Intergovernmental
     Panel on Climate Change. He also recently co-authored a paper in Geophysical Research
     Letters tracing a 900-year history of monsoon variability in India.

     The study, which analyzed isotopes in cave stalagmites, found correlations between
     recorded famines and monsoon failures, and found that some past monsoon failures appear
     to have lasted much longer than those that occurred during recorded history. The ongoing
     research is aimed at shedding light on the monsoons poorly understood but vital role in
     Earths climate.



     Sciences press release

     Warming >From High to Low:
     Analysis of a new sea-sediment core in the Pacific suggests that the warming that
     followed the last glacial period began in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
     before sweeping into the tropics. The findings could help sort out the sequence of
     climate changes underlying the dramatic switch that turned an ice age into today's
     interglacial climate, say Lowell Stott and colleagues. Carbon-14 dating of organic
     material in the core suggests that deep tropical waters in the western Pacific warmed up
     by about 2 degrees Celsius between 19,000 and 17,000 years ago, 1,500 years earlier than
     comparable warming in the tropical surface waters and 1,000 years before atmospheric
     carbon dioxide began to rise. The source of the tropical deep heat may have been an even
     earlier heat wave in surface waters closer to the South Pole, warmed by an increase in
     solar radiation at the hemisphere's higher latitudes.



     ARTICLE #23: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2
     Rise and Tropical Warming," by L. Stott at University of Southern California in Los
     Angeles, CA; A. Timmermann at University of Hawaii in Honolulu, HI; R. Thunell at
     University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC.

     CONTACT: Lowell Stott at +1-213-740-5120 (phone), or stott@usc.edu (email)


     Ananyo Bhattacharya PhD
     Acting Deputy Editor, Chemistry World
     Tel: +44 (0)1223 432 184
     Mob: +44 (0)7766 257 642
     Fax: +44 (0)1223 426 017
     Email: [4]bhattacharyaa@rsc.org

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