date: Thu May 15 13:55:40 2003
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: paper/comment request
to: David Appell <appell@nasw.org>

   David
   I would be happy to discuss the background and this paper in general if you care to phone
   (see number below) . I will be here all friday
   I agree with a lot of what Phil said in his message = but the complications arise  because
   of the mis use of the results by the greenhouse sceptics - and paranoia of some who believe
   in greenhouse warming.
   I believe passionately that we have a long way to go to get realistic and accurate
   (absolute) measures of Hemispheric temperatures over the last millennium and earlier .
   However, we must not lose sight of the fact that the "best evidence" is certainly in
   support of unprecedented (truly mean Hemispheric and annual) warming in the 20th century
   and recent decades.  The modern (instrumental) indications of Hemispheric warmth are
   (almost literally) incomparably superior to those based on our high-resolution proxy
   records (with their narrow coverage and largely summer seasonal bias) . Even pushing the
   few individual records to their maximum warmth limit , the most sensible interpretation of
   the data does provide much of a case for equivalent warmth in any "Medeival" period (or on
   any timescale). Those who prefer to believe in a globally warmer Medieval period largely
   fall back on poorly resolved , even more selective evidence  that has real problems  e.g.
   interpretable signal (temp. versus precip.) ; qualitative measurement ; non-deconvolved
   lagged responses, and geographical bias that is at least as poor as our high-resolution
   data. The science is not progressed without overcoming these problems. Our own desire to
   recognize and address the limitations of our own data in the search for accurate and
   absolute climate histories should not be confused with a clear expression that "as we
   stand" the evidence against unprecedented recent warming does not carry the day.
   At 04:11 PM 5/13/03 -0400, you wrote:

     Hi. I was wondering if I could get a copy of your 1998 paper:
     Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Barnett, T.P. and Tett, S.F.B., 1998
     "High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium:
     interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation
     Model control-run temperatures," The Holocene 8(4), 455-471 (1998).
     As you may know, this paper has been cited by Soon and Baliunas as
     evidence for a worldwide "discernible climatic anomaly during the Little
     Ice Age, defined as 1300-1900." [Soon W, Baliunas S, "Proxy climatic and
     environmental changes of the past 1000 years," Climate Research,
     23:89-110 (2003)] (attached) -- see question 1, p. 90.
     I'm wondering whether you agree with Soon and Baliunas classification of
     your paper.
     I'd be interested in any thoughts, by this coming Monday, May 19th --
     I'm writing a news article for "Scientific American" magazine on these
     claims.. As well as any thoughts you have on the Soon & Baliunas paper
     (as well as their longer paper,
     "Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes of the Past 1000
     Years: A Reappraisal," Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso,
     Craig Idso and David R. Legates, Energy and Environment, vol. 14, issues
     2 & 3, April 11, 2003.
     Thank you,
     David
     --
     David Appell, freelance science journalist
     http://www.nasw.org/users/appell
     p: 207-646-3080
     f: 815-333-1486
     e: appell@nasw.org
     m: 27 Beach Street Rear, P.O. Box 42, Ogunquit, ME  03907-0042

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
