cc: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
date: Thu, 17 Feb 2000 12:00:41 +0000
from: John Shepherd <John.G.Shepherd@soc.soton.ac.uk>
subject: Re: RP4 : Third Draft (14 Feb)
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

Phil

	If those are the most serious problems you can see then I think we're in
good shape. I will incorporate your comments as best I can. However, I do
not guarantee to do precisely what you wish in every instance, and I rather
object to the peremptory and didactic tone of some of your observations
(particularly 3 & 4), with which I do not wholly agree, and where
alternative views are tenable. 

	John

At 08:56 15/02/00 +0000, you wrote:
>
> Dear John,
>    I still have serious concerns about a few sections of RP4. Here are my
> comments.
>
>   1.  add -- particularly in Europe to the sentence on the LIA and MWP. The
>              effects were not that great outside the N. Atlantic/European
>              region.
>
>   2. para 3  Large-scale 'winter' floods   .. to distinguish from the
>              previous sentence.
>
>   3.  There is serious concern about global warming (future warming from
>           human influences). Any concern about the change in the THC is
>           not as serious. Just say some concern. Giving it such a high
>          profile just confuses. I only want one word changed, serious to
>          some !
>
>  4. The second para of the Analysis of Observations doesn't really link to 
>     the first, but the most serious problem of all is that the third para
>     is in the wrong place. It can't go here. It is about scenarios. These
>     will come from models so this has to be in the next section on models.
>     The modelling sections begins with a sentence saying we will evaluate
the
>     chosen scenarios. These scenarios come from models, not observations.
>
>     The 3rd para should be the first in the modelling scetion and it should
>     say that the scenarios will come from the Hadley Centre models. I can't
>     see why you're so against saying that the scenarios will come from
>     HadCM3/4 etc. This RP is about extreme events and rapid climate change.
>     Scenarios for extreme events which are needed for the next 3 sections
>     on Impacts, Decision Analysis and Tech/Eng WILL NOT come from your
>     intermediate-complexity models. They can't by definition. You might get
>     them through downscaling but only through using HC models again. Your
>     intermediate-complexity models haven't got the spatial and temporal
>     resolution.
>
> 5.  What is the recent work that has shown potential to model the system
>     in a quasi-stochastic manner ?  This sentence needs a reference. I've
>     no idea what you're referring to. A real reference is needed, not a 
>     pers. comm. or an in press one.
>
> 6.  If the title of the RP says rapid climate change, then change all
abrupts
>     to rapid.
>
> 7.  Short para at the end of the modelling section. We have the experts in
>     the group at UEA. The implication here is that we don't have them.
>
> 8. What are the 'events which are outside the range of eventualities' ? Can
>    there be an example ?
>
> 9. downscaling is all one word.
>
> 10. The tech/eng section is good. The final para is a bit fanciful. You 
>     could add a sentence about combatting rapid climate change.
>
> Sorry to reiterate my earlier points but things are in the wrong place,
> the empahasis isn't right at times and there are at least two totally
> unsupported statements.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>Prof. Phil Jones
>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 
>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 
>University of East Anglia                      
>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk 
>NR4 7TJ
>UK
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>    
>
