date: Thu, 28 Jun 2007 16:50:09 +0100
from: "John Davies" <john.davies@foe.co.uk>
subject: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE COMMENTS.
to: <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Dear Dr Phil Jones,

                  A few points on the comments you made.


   1 The warming that will cause effective global action to be taken on Global Warming is
   warming which people perceive to affect themselves. I have expressed this in numerical
   terms as the Berkeley Line. This temperature has been expressed as a deviation from the
   average temperature as measured by the Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit. You
   mention that the warming of the ocean surface in the area which was ice covered ocean in
   1976 and is not ice covered now is ignored in this data is as I see it not relevant to the
   level when people will seriously perceive global warming as a threat because nobody
   experiences the temperature in this small part of the world.


   2 The warming of the ocean downwards does to some extent explains the slow warming of the
   earth.


   3  Measuring SST's from buoys may well diminish the measured rise in SST's but is it not
   true that buoys have been used in this role since the 1950's so the effect of changing from
   ships to buoys is quite small in current measurements?



   My feeling is that the measures used by the Climatic Research Unit and Hadley Centre to
   measures global temperature give results which are very close to the correct figure for
   global temperature and warming. If anything the warming is probably very slightly greater
   than the measured figure but I would guess by less than 0.05 degrees Celsius. My reason is
   that the change one sees in the global climate and weather since 1976 does not seem large,
   In fact 1998 seems the warmest year on record despite what is aid about 2005, certainly
   there was much more disruption in 1998. If it were possible to measure these temperatures
   with 100% accuracy I would be astounded if present global temperature was as much as 0.6
   degrees Celsius above the level until 1976.


    I shall send you a modified version of what I wrote previously.


   Ideally there should be huge cuts in greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale immediately
   but I think this is very unlikely. Global temperatures have not risen enough to alarm
   people sufficiently and Chinese emissions have risen enormously and the US still emits more
   per capita than any large nation. As the US and China are very reluctant to agree cuts in
   their projected emissions it is difficult to envisage other nations agreeing to make large
   cuts in emissions. The US and China would agree to cut emissions if global temperature had
   risen more than has occurred.


   It still seems enormously likely that there will be a large rise in global temperature
   before 2016, more than 0.2 degrees Celsius, with huge consequences for human society.


   All the Best,


   John B Davies.

   --
   [1]Support Friends of the Earth
   These personal opinions do not necessarily reflect the policy of Friends of the Earth.

