cc: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 10:16:12 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>
subject: Re: CLIVAR abstract
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

   Thanks Keith,
   Wow--you're echoing my thoughts exactly. I really can't believe Nature published this. The
   problems seem to jump out at you when you read what they've done. I can only assume that
   the borehole folks and Von Storch and company pushed this (as reviewers, or otherwise).
   Heike Langenberg was a von Storch post-doc, but she's always struck me as honest and
   independent--I'd hate to think otherwise...
   I'm doing some experiments right now w/ CCSM3 pseudoproxies emulating what they've done as
   we speak. I'll plan to send these to you guys and Phil, as soon as I've got some results.
   We could join efforts in a response, or both write separate responses. Whatever you think
   makes more sense. In any case, I want to show you guys the results and get your thoughts...
   Thanks again,
   Mike
   At 10:07 AM 2/9/2005, Keith Briffa wrote:

     thanks for this . I have to say that I do not think the Moberg paper advances the
     Science much. Need to see supplementary information , but my initial thought is that
     there are real problems with their treatment of the "low frequency data" . We are
     weighed down with trying to put a large European proposal together , but Tim and I are
     toying wit the idea of writing a response. I find it a bit irritating that they couch
     their piece as a specific criticism of the M+J series and virtually ignore the other
     reconstructions , hence setting up a straw Mann (ha ha) . Problem is that thsi
     juxtaposition of boreholes ,Echo-G and their series will create a new "state of the art"
     of (apparently) mutually reinforcing evidence.  At 12:49 09/02/2005, you wrote:

     Hi Keith,
     Thanks for the clarification.
     I have seen the zero order draft and have looked over it, though not yet in full detail.
     On the whole appears quite fair, and balanced, and comprehensive. Very nice job!
     I still think the borehole discussion is a bit unbalanced. It sounds a lot like Henry
     Pollock to me. The Gonzalez-Rouco simulation is, as we know, somewhat questionable, and
     there is no discussion of the GISS simulation by Mann and Schmidt which suggests a
     likely low-frequency bias. So I'm likely to comment on this in my "official" remarks as
     a reviewer for the chapter (seems a bit odd that I'm both a contributor and reviewer,
     but as long as you all don't mind, I don't either). Other than that, I think my comments
     will probably be minor (you know how rare that is!).
     I see that the comments are due in early April, so I'll probably wait until it gets
     close so that I can provide an update on the status of in-review/in-press manuscripts.
     For example, I'm hoping to work w/ Phil on a sort-of response to Moberg et al, which
     should be quite clarifying (we can get the same result as them, basically, using the
     Mann and Jones series and a similar approach to what they did, but I think I can show
     that the approach does very poorly w/ pseudoproxies). By the way, the Mann et al J.
     Climate letter on the CCSM Pseudoproxy experiments in now provisionally accepted. Will
     keep you updated.
     Thanks again for keeping me updated, and congratulations on a wonderful job w/ the ZOD.
     Its an improvement on what we had in the TAR for sure, and I really like the fact that
     it gives justice to the large amount of work that has been done by the community since
     then...
     thanks again,
     mike
     (At 03:50 AM 2/9/2005, you wrote:

     Sorry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   You can see that I am in "headless chicken mode"  - no idea how
     this message got reworked into my inbox!    Have you seen the zero order draft ?  Where
     are we with balancing views?
     Keith
     At 16:54 08/02/2005, you wrote:

     HI Keith,
     Thanks--this is a very old message. I think we provided this abstract many months ago
     already. SO, unless I misunderstand, nothing for us to do here, I think??
     Mike
     At 11:33 AM 2/8/05, Keith Briffa wrote:

     Mike
     just seen this email - please forward their request again and I will look again
     cheers
     Keith
     At 22:43 12/11/2003, you wrote:

     Dear Keith,
     No doubt you got the reminder that the CLIVAR folks want a (400 word) abstract from us
     by Dec 15th for the June meeting.  Did you want to take the first stab at this, then we
     can iterate back and forth a bit?
     let me know how you want to proceed w/ this...
     Thanks,
     mike
     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

     _______________________________________________________________________
                          Professor Michael E. Mann
               Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
            [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

     ______________________________________________________________
                         Professor Michael E. Mann
                Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                           University of Virginia
                          Charlottesville, VA 22903
     _______________________________________________________________________
     e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
              [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

   ______________________________________________________________
                       Professor Michael E. Mann
              Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
                         University of Virginia
                        Charlottesville, VA 22903
   _______________________________________________________________________
   e-mail: mann@virginia.edu   Phone: (434) 924-7770   FAX: (434) 982-2137
            [7]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

