date: Wed, 21 Aug 2002 13:27:04 +0100
from: Benito Mueller <benito.mueller@philosophy.oxford.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Impact figure projections
to: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

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Dear Mike,
many thanks for taking the trouble.  I will definitely take you comments 
into consideration for future presentations of the result (e.g. at 
COP8).  Please find attached a substantially revised version (including 
some further sensitivity analyses, on Tom's suggestion).  I also included 
some more ENSO 'stuff', which you may be interested in (a physicist friend 
helped me out with some Fourier analyses)
As for your point (3), I'm afraid I do not have the capacity for this but 
would be willing to help someone who does.

Again, many thanks
as ever
Benito

At 12:58 21/08/2002 +0100, you wrote:
>Benito,
>
>These comments are probably too late for you but holidays have intervened.
>
>1.  You should really explore how sensitive your model is to different 
>starting dates.  If you chose 1980 instead of 1975 then all your 
>predictions would be less extreme and if you started in 1987, your model 
>would predict reductions!  These sort of regression based models can be 
>very sensitive to the particular year you chose to start from.
>
>2. You should also explore how sensitive the model predictions are to your 
>preferred use of % units (i.e., of total population) rather than absolute 
>numbers of people.  One could argue that absolute numbers is a more 
>sensible unit to use - although I admit there are arguments either 
>way.  How sensitive is your model to this?
>
>3.  Why do you not set up a direct step-wise multiple-regression model 
>with three predictors - time, global T and an ENSO index?  Thus you tackle 
>all three issues simultaneously.  Different future ENSO indices can be 
>used to examine sensitivity then.
>
>4.  And of course the general point is to emphasis the need to address the 
>non-climatic part of the trend just as much - if not more - than the 
>climatic part of the trend (the latter simply provides the entry point 
>into the UNFCCC world).
>
>Other comments - not sure what you mean in your use of the word 
>'significant' - this can sometimes have a formal statistical meaning but 
>it also has a popular meaning.  Be careful how you use this.
>
>Also, once or twice you insert value statements e.g. a 'truly worrying 
>trend'  which I would have thought are best left out.
>
>I'd be interested to see how this discussion develops.
>
>Mike
>
>
>At 14:09 30/07/02 +0100, you wrote:
>>Dear Mike,
>>as promised (threatened?), please find attached a short chapter on the 
>>'Demand-side' for Impact response measures.  It's primary aim is to 
>>highlight the urgent need to consider vulnerability reduction and impact 
>>response measures.  I take it from our conversation here in Oxford some 
>>days ago that you concur with the need to highlight these issues.  Given 
>>this, I was hoping whether you and/or the colleague you mentioned could 
>>have a quick look at the chapter and tell me where I am wrong and how I 
>>could improve the argument.
>>
>>As I will be giving a presentation of this and other material to Swiss 
>>government officials and representatives from the International Red Cross 
>>and the UN Office for the coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in two 
>>weeks time, I would be most grateful if you could indicate your key 
>>criticisms a.s.a.p.
>>
>>many thanks
>>best wishes
>>Benito
>>
>>
>>
>>Dr Benito Mller
>>
>>www.OxfordClimatePolicy.org
>>www.OxfordEnergy.org
>>+44 (0)1865 889 135 (direct)
>>+44 (0)1865 311 377
>
>

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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mueller II.a V2.pdf"
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Dr Benito Mller

www.OxfordClimatePolicy.org
www.OxfordEnergy.org
+44 (0)1865 889 135 (direct)
+44 (0)1865 311 377

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