cc: Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>, "Rosanne D'Arrigo" <rdd@ldeo.columbia.edu>, Keith Briffa <K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Jan Esper <esper@wsl.ch>, Rob Wilson <rob.wilson@ed.ac.uk>
date: Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:33:28 -0400
from: Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
subject: Re: Trieste complications
to: David Frank <david.frank@wsl.ch>

   Hi Dave,

   I just downloaded your powerpoint presentation from your server and looked at it. Very nice
   job! It really covers many of the issues regarding proxy uncertainty and tree rings. It is
   also really important not to let the instrumental people off the hook, especially after
   that debacle just published on by Thompson et al. in Nature concerning the SST corrections
   or lack there of. The recent Eos article by Vecchi likewise shows how much uncertainty
   remains in the instrumental SST fields. So it is increasingly clear to me, as I believe it
   is to you, that the climate data homogenization methods used can contribute significantly
   to the uncertainty in the reconstructions even when the proxies are typically assigned
   pretty much all blame. So while we need to be completely honest about the many large
   uncertainties in our tree-ring data and reconstructions, the instrumental data mob needs to
   be equally honest and upfront about how they are contributing significant uncertainty to
   the reconstructions as well. This is especially important at the lower frequencies, which
   makes time-scale dependent calibration even more difficult to objectively assess.

   Cheers,

   Ed
   ==================================
   Dr. Edward R. Cook
   Doherty Senior Scholar and
   Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
   Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
   Palisades, New York 10964  USA
   Email: [1]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
   Phone: 845-365-8618
   Fax: 845-365-8152
   ==================================
   On May 29, 2008, at 9:42 AM, David Frank wrote:

   Hi Ed.
   I guess i view this a bit less critically towards the people who did the corrections. <But
   rather more critically in terms of the magnitude of possible errors/biases in the
   instrumental records themselves and also the importance of the decisions that are made in
   producing datasets. I assume that the choice to put out an RCS vs. STD reconstruction over
   the past 500 years is of a similar magnitude - albeit ultimately less important as fewer
   people use our reconstructions.
   However, yeah, still pretty crazy. I wonder how far the consequences of this might echo.
   cheers,
   David

     Hi Dave,

     Thanks for the paper as well. I heard about the extremely shocking goof in the
     instrumental records from Phil Jones in Tahiti. Frankly, I'm amazed that such a shoddy,
     amateurish mistake could have been made by the British Met Office. The skeptics will
     have a field day with this paper, honestly, as they should. Maybe the global change
     community is getting too smug.

     Ed

     ==================================

     Dr. Edward R. Cook

     Doherty Senior Scholar and

     Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory

     Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

     Palisades, New York 10964 USA

     Email: [2]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu

     Phone: 845-365-8618

     Fax: 845-365-8152

     ==================================

     On May 29, 2008, at 8:22 AM, David Frank wrote:

     Hi Ed,

     Sorry to hear that. But it is good to know that Keith's daughter is expected to be fine.

     As long as your travels do not meet similarly unexpected or difficult circumstances, the
     uncertainties in tree-ring reconstructions will be well covered!

     Sure, I will bring some slides along.

     I placed a powerpoint presentation on an ftp server for Keith
     ([3]ftp://ftp.wsl.ch/pub/frank/keith), perhaps you could screen this to see if something
     might be relevant. This was a talk that i gave to people dealing with proxies uglier,
     and more poorly resolved, than tree-rings. The intention was to illustrate some of the
     challenges encountered when dealing with tree-rings (or other proxy data).

     If you get a chance before the meeting, i'd be interested to see some of the slides that
     you have to know what things you and Keith had been thinking about.

     Will do. Funny you should ask. The papi Esper is catching up on sleep as i type. We were
     discussing some analyses and i left so that he could take a nap! Not sure whether that
     is more of an indication for being a father of twins, or that i should find a more
     interesting problem.

     I leave for a meeting this Saturday (Barnaul, Russia) and will return Saturday afternoon
     before Trieste. Assuming all goes well with russian airplanes, I will then arrive in
     Trieste Sunday evening. Not sure i will have email access after tomorrow, so if not
     before then, have a good trip.

     cheers,
     David

     ps. attached is a paper published today which seems to be rather relevant in terms of
     defining uncertainties. I guess the title for our QSR paper, may not have been too
     poor...

     Hi Dave,
     I am forwarding on to you an email I just sent to Keith in response to his unfortunate
     cancellation of his Trieste trip. As you can tell from his email and my reply, his
     daughter Amy is ill and Keith needs to be there for her operation. I also just got off
     the phone talking with Keith. It sounds like Amy will be fine, but the operation
     probably won't happen until next week. In the meantime, Keith will be sending a few
     powerpoint slides to me on what he would have talked about, but obviously his
     cancellation changes things and heaps a lot of what he would talk about on to me. Please
     bring some presentation stuff with you as well. Maybe we can do a bit of a tag team
     presentation. The meeting is all rather informal, so it shouldn't be too difficult.
     Please pass on my regards to Papa Esper! How much sleep has he gotten lately?
     Cheers,
     Ed
     ==================================
     Dr. Edward R. Cook
     Doherty Senior Scholar and
     Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory

     Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
     Palisades, New York 10964 USA
     Email: [4]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
     Phone: 845-365-8618
     Fax: 845-365-8152
     ==================================
     Begin forwarded message:

     From: Edward Cook <[5]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
     Date: May 29, 2008 6:54:41 AM EDT
     To: Keith Briffa <[6]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     Cc: Edward Cook <[7]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
     Subject: Re: Unavoidable cancellation also
     Hi Keith,
     I am very sorry to hear about Amy's medical problems. Hopefully, all will go well.
     Please give her my warmest regards and hope for a speedy recovery. You are of course
     absolutely right to cancel. The meeting won't be nearly as much fun without you however.
     I tried calling you about an hour ago. Will try again later. Do you have any powerpoint
     stuff prepared that you could give me to present? I will probably ask Dave Frank to help
     out too. I am working on the pc regression bootstrap now for single predictands and
     screened predictors, with some interesting results coming out. See below plotted in two
     different ways. The confidence limits are percentiles based on 1000 boostrap
     replications. I need to put in the much better bias corrected and accelerated BCa limits
     that explicitly allow for asymmetric confidence intervals, but that is more involved. I
     also haven't had time to extend it to full OSR yet, but that is more a programming issue
     than one related to anything theoretical.

     Ed

     ?

     ?

     ==================================
     Dr. Edward R. Cook
     Doherty Senior Scholar and
     Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
     Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
     Palisades, New York 10964 USA
     Email: [8]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
     Phone: 845-365-8618
     Fax: 845-365-8152
     ==================================
     On May 29, 2008, at 5:31 AM, Keith Briffa wrote:

     Lisa, Kim and Eystein (and Ed)
     I am very sorry - but I too must cancel at this late time. My daughter Amy has been
     unexpectedly taken to hospital and is awaiting an operation. At the moment she is fine -
     but the date of the operation has not been fixed. However, it is likely to be sometime
     next week. She will then stay in hospital for a few days and if all is well she will
     need looking after for some weeks. This is happening in Birmingham , where she is
     currently studying (some 200 miles from our home). I have been there for severakl days
     and have just returned to try to sort out commitments here in Norwich and abroad butI
     will need to go there for some period over the next few weeks. I am therefore, forced to
     cancel my participation in the Trieste CCLIVAR/PAGES meeting and the associated steering
     Committee meeting. This is completely unavoidable and I very much hoping that Ed Cook or
     Rosanne D'Arrigo will fill in for me . I know Ed is preparing something and I am happy
     to try and discuss points with him. This is the first time I have just returned from
     Birmingham and I will try to speak with Ed by phone today. I am asking my secretary to
     try to cancel flight tickets but his may be difficult now. Again I am sorry for this
     trouble - but I am sure you will appreciate my position.
     Keith
     At 14:09 28/05/2008, you wrote:

     Dear ricardo,
     Thanks so much for your prompt reply, even though we are sorry you cannot make it!!!
     Hope to have a future opportunity to welcome you to the ICTP..
     all the best, Lisa
     On 28 May 2008, at 14:17, Ricardo Villalba wrote:

     Dear Lisa,
     Thanks for your message. Unfortunately I am not able to attend to the Workshop in
     Trieste. I will send my inputs to Kieth Briffa and other participants regarding
     high-resolution records in South America. Hope you have a very productive meeting. Best
     regards,
     Ricardo
     
     ----- Original Message -----
     From: Iannitti Lisa
     To: [9]ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar
     Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 7:15 AM
     Subject: smr1972- CL Letter - Villalba
     Dear Dr. Villalba,
     did you receive the email I previously sent? 1Z2I don't seem to have your
     accommodation form or any reply from you.. 1Z2If you did sent something, I have never
     received it..1Z2

     You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you will be attending?
     all the best, Lisa
     Workshop on
     'Reducing and Representing Uncertainites in High-Resolution Proxy Data'
     June 9 - 11, 2008
     1Z2(tel: +39 040 2240227,1Z21Z2 fax: +39 040 2240558,1Z21Z2
     e-mail: [10]iannitti@ictp.it)
     Venue:1Z2 Adriatico Guesthouse - Kastler1Z2Lecture Hall
     activity web page: [11]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/
     Organizers:1Z2
     K. Cobb1Z2(Georgia Tech), T. Kiefer (PAGES) J. Lough1Z2(AIMS),1Z2J.
     Ooverpeck1Z2(U. Arizona),1Z2S. Tudhope1Z2(U. Edinburgh),1Z2F.
     Kucharski1Z2(ICTP)
     ________________________________________________________________________________
     Dear Speaker,
     Please find a1Z2scanned1Z2copy of the official invitation letter for the
     above-mentioned activity and other relevant attachments, for your official
     purposes.1Z2
     Please find attached an accommodation form which should be filled in and sent back to us
     [via e-mail]1Z2 as confirmation of your attendance and for advance guesthouse booking
     to (please note that no reservation can be made unless the form is emailed back to us)
     [however, if you have already returned the form, please disregard this]:
     1Z21Z2 1Z21Z21Z21Z21Z21Z21Z2 [12]iannitti@ictp.it
     1Z21Z21Z21Z21Z21Z21Z2 cc.:1Z21Z21Z2 [13]operations@ictp.it
     [14]housing@ictp.it
     As soon as your form is processed by our housing office, confirmation of
     your1Z2guesthouse booking will be sent to you by email.
     For our internal pre-activity purposes (preliminary budget updates, etc.) , we would
     like to kindly request you to also send us your travel details once fixed.

     Furthermore,1Z21Z2a simple activity web page can be accessed
     at1Z2 [15]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/1Z21Z2& an Agenda
     page [16]at:1Z2 [17]http://cdsagenda5.ictp.trieste.it/full_display.php?smr=0&ida=a0718
     1 1Z21Z2where the program1Z2(once completed)1Z2and other relevant materials,
     will be displayed.1Z2
     For this reason, we kindly ask you to send a copy of your final notes (preferably,
     already in a pdf format or, if not possible, in powerpoint1Z2 [to be converted
     into pdf locally])1Z2 via e-mail, by the end of May, 1Z2to:1Z2
     1Z[18]2iannitti@ictp.it 1Z2 1Z2 1Z2 to be uploaded on the web for world-wide
     access.1Z2 If you do not want them to be uploaded, please specify this in your return
     email.1Z21Z2
     We would also like to compile a CD of the lecturing materials to be handed out
     [possibly] at the end of the activity to all attendees, if we have the notes in advance
     or if not, to be mailed out soon afterwards.
     1Z2
     For your kind reference, Pre-arrival and General Information on the ICTP is also
     available on the Centre's website
     at1Z2 [19]http://www.ictp.it/pages/info/visiting.html. 1Z2
     Once again, we would like to thank you for having accepted to join this event and for
     your kind collaboration, and look forward to welcoming you to the ICTP in June.1Z2
     All the best.
     Lisa Iannitti
     Secretary-in-charge
     (on behalf of the Organizers)
     *******************************************************************************
     Lisa Iannitti S"We are not permitted to choose the
     International Centre for frame of our destiny.... but what we put into
     Theoretical Physics (ICTP) it, is ours..."  -  Dag HammarskjöldS
     of UNESCO and the IAEA
     Strada Costiera 11
     34014 Trieste, Italy
     tel.: +39 - 040 - 2240227
     fax.: +39 - 040 - 2240558
     ICTP website: [20]http://www.ictp.it/
     Dear Dr. Villalba,
     did you receive the email I previously sent? I don't seem to have 
     your accommodation form or any reply from you.. If you did sent 
     something, I have never received it..
     You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you 
     will be attending?
     all the best, Lisa

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [21]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

     Hi Dave,

     I am forwarding on to you an email I just sent to Keith in response to his unfortunate
     cancellation of his Trieste trip. As you can tell from his email and my reply, his
     daughter Amy is ill and Keith needs to be there for her operation. I also just got off
     the phone talking with Keith. It sounds like Amy will be fine, but the operation
     probably won't happen until next week. In the meantime, Keith will be sending a few
     powerpoint slides to me on what he would have talked about, but obviously his
     cancellation changes things and heaps a lot of what he would talk about on to me. Please
     bring some presentation stuff with you as well. Maybe we can do a bit of a tag team
     presentation. The meeting is all rather informal, so it shouldn't be too difficult.

     Please pass on my regards to Papa Esper! How much sleep has he gotten lately?

     Cheers,

     Ed

     ==================================

     Dr. Edward R. Cook

     Doherty Senior Scholar and

     Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory

     Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

     Palisades, New York 10964 USA

     Email: [22]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu

     Phone: 845-365-8618

     Fax: 845-365-8152

     ==================================

     Begin forwarded message:

     From: Edward Cook <[23]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>

     Date: May 29, 2008 6:54:41 AM EDT

     To: Keith Briffa <[24]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

     Cc: Edward Cook <[25]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>

     Subject: Re: Unavoidable cancellation also

     Hi Keith,

     I am very sorry to hear about Amy's medical problems. Hopefully, all will go well.
     Please give her my warmest regards and hope for a speedy recovery. You are of course
     absolutely right to cancel. The meeting won't be nearly as much fun without you however.

     I tried calling you about an hour ago. Will try again later. Do you have any powerpoint
     stuff prepared that you could give me to present? I will probably ask Dave Frank to help
     out too. I am working on the pc regression bootstrap now for single predictands and
     screened predictors, with some interesting results coming out. See below plotted in two
     different ways. The confidence limits are percentiles based on 1000 boostrap
     replications. I need to put in the much better bias corrected and accelerated BCa limits
     that explicitly allow for asymmetric confidence intervals, but that is more involved. I
     also haven't had time to extend it to full OSR yet, but that is more a programming issue
     than one related to anything theoretical.

     Ed

     <pastedGraphic.tiff>

     <pastedGraphic 1.tiff>

     ==================================

     Dr. Edward R. Cook

     Doherty Senior Scholar and

     Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory

     Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

     Palisades, New York 10964 USA

     Email: [26]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu

     Phone: 845-365-8618

     Fax: 845-365-8152

     ==================================

     On May 29, 2008, at 5:31 AM, Keith Briffa wrote:

     Lisa, Kim and Eystein (and Ed)
     I am very sorry - but I too must cancel at this late time. My daughter Amy has been
     unexpectedly taken to hospital and is awaiting an operation. At the moment she is fine -
     but the date of the operation has not been fixed. However, it is likely to be sometime
     next week. She will then stay in hospital for a few days and if all is well she will
     need looking after for some weeks. This is happening in Birmingham , where she is
     currently studying (some 200 miles from our home). I have been there for severakl days
     and have just returned to try to sort out commitments here in Norwich and abroad butI
     will need to go there for some period over the next few weeks. I am therefore, forced to
     cancel my participation in the Trieste CCLIVAR/PAGES meeting and the associated steering
     Committee meeting. This is completely unavoidable and I very much hoping that Ed Cook or
     Rosanne D'Arrigo will fill in for me . I know Ed is preparing something and I am happy
     to try and discuss points with him. This is the first time I have just returned from
     Birmingham and I will try to speak with Ed by phone today. I am asking my secretary to
     try to cancel flight tickets but his may be difficult now. Again I am sorry for this
     trouble - but I am sure you will appreciate my position.

     Keith
     At 14:09 28/05/2008, you wrote:

     Dear ricardo,
     Thanks so much for your prompt reply, even though we are sorry you cannot make it!!!
     Hope to have a future opportunity to welcome you to the ICTP..
     all the best, Lisa
     On 28 May 2008, at 14:17, Ricardo Villalba wrote:

     Dear Lisa,
     Thanks for your message. Unfortunately I am not able to attend to the Workshop in
     Trieste. I will send my inputs to Kieth Briffa and other participants regarding
     high-resolution records in South America. Hope you have a very productive meeting. Best
     regards,
     Ricardo
     

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: [27]Iannitti Lisa
     To: [28]ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar
     Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 7:15 AM
     Subject: smr1972- CL Letter - Villalba
     Dear Dr. Villalba,
     did you receive the email I previously sent? SI don't seem to have your accommodation
     form or any reply from you.. SIf you did sent something, I have never received it..S
     You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you will be attending?
     all the best, Lisa
     Workshop on
     'Reducing and Representing Uncertainites in High-Resolution Proxy Data'
     June 9 - 11, 2008
     S(tel: +39 040 2240227,SS fax: +39 040 2240558,SS
     e-mail: [29]iannitti@ictp.it)
     Venue:S Adriatico Guesthouse - KastlerSLecture Hall
     activity web page: [30]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/
     Organizers:S
     K. CobbS(Georgia Tech), T. Kiefer (PAGES) J. LoughS(AIMS),SJ. OoverpeckS(U.
     Arizona),SS. TudhopeS(U. Edinburgh),SF. KucharskiS(ICTP)
     ________________________________________________________________________________

     Dear Speaker,
     Please find aSscannedScopy of the official invitation letter for the above-mentioned
     activity and other relevant attachments, for your official purposes.S
     Please find attached an accommodation form which should be filled in and sent back to us
     [via e-mail]S as confirmation of your attendance and for advance guesthouse booking to
     (please note that no reservation can be made unless the form is emailed back to us)
     [however, if you have already returned the form, please disregard this]:
     SS SSSSSSS [31]iannitti@ictp.it
     SSSSSSS cc.:SSS [32]operations@ictp.it
     [33]housing@ictp.it
     As soon as your form is processed by our housing office, confirmation of
     yourSguesthouse booking will be sent to you by email.
     For our internal pre-activity purposes (preliminary budget updates, etc.) , we would
     like to kindly request you to also send us your travel details once fixed.
     Furthermore,SSa simple activity web page can be accessed
     atS[34] http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/SS& an Agenda
     page [35]at:S[36] http://cdsagenda5.ictp.trieste.it/full_display.php?smr=0&ida=a07181
     SSwhere the programS(once completed)Sand other relevant materials, will be
     displayed.S
     For this reason, we kindly ask you to send a copy of your final notes (preferably,
     already in a pdf format or, if not possible, in powerpointS [to be converted into
     pdf locally])S via e-mail, by the end of May, Sto:S
     S[37]iannitti@ictp.it S S S to be uploaded on the web for world-wide
     access.S If you do not want them to be uploaded, please specify this in your return
     email.SS
     We would also like to compile a CD of the lecturing materials to be handed out
     [possibly] at the end of the activity to all attendees, if we have the notes in advance
     or if not, to be mailed out soon afterwards.
     S
     For your kind reference, Pre-arrival and General Information on the ICTP is also
     available on the Centre's website
     atS[38] http://www.ictp.it/pages/info/visiting.html. S
     Once again, we would like to thank you for having accepted to join this event and for
     your kind collaboration, and look forward to welcoming you to the ICTP in June.S

     All the best.
     Lisa Iannitti
     Secretary-in-charge
     (on behalf of the Organizers)
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     *******************************************************************************
     Lisa Iannitti S"We are not permitted to choose the
     International Centre for frame of our destiny.... but what we put into
     Theoretical Physics (ICTP) it, is ours..."  -  Dag HammarskjöldS
     of UNESCO and the IAEA
     Strada Costiera 11
     34014 Trieste, Italy
     tel.: +39 - 040 - 2240227
     fax.: +39 - 040 - 2240558
     ICTP website: [39]http://www.ictp.it/
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     Dear Dr. Villalba,
     did you receive the email I previously sent? I don't seem to have 
     your accommodation form or any reply from you.. If you did sent 
     something, I have never received it..
     You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you 
     will be attending?
     all the best, Lisa

     --
     Professor Keith Briffa,
     Climatic Research Unit
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
     Phone: +44-1603-593909
     Fax: +44-1603-507784
     [40]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

     <pastedGraphic.tiff><pastedGraphic 1.tiff><Thompson_etal_Nature_2008.pdf>

