date: Tue Apr  5 07:56:57 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Douglass and Knox, GRL, March 2005
to: Tom Wigley <wigley@cgd.ucar.edu>

    Tom,
      That's what Myles says as well - you can't reduce the uncertainty range,
    especially the upper limit. Myles gets the lower limit of at least 1-1.5C.
       I'm off after today until April 15. See you later in the month.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 15:41 04/04/2005, you wrote:

     Thanx Phil. I will see Myles at the end of the month before coming up to Norwich.
     By the way, my paper says one CAN get sensitivity from volcanoes, but cannot
     narrow the uncertainty range.
     Tom.
     ===========
     Phil Jones wrote:

      Tom,
         I gave Myles the crap paper last week when we met at Duke for an IDAG
      meeting. He has a paper coming out soon in GRL saying much the
      same as you - volcanoes can't be used to estimate the climate sensitivity.
      He was unaware of Douglass and Knox. I think Myles paper has someone
      else as the first author. Myles is aware of your paper. He refers to it
      and made a comment to getting the same sort of answer in his presentation.
        I am saying all this as Myles went onto Sydney, Australia and is there for
      much of this week.
        I think we've all signed off on the NRC review. You should get something in the
      next 2-3 weeks so I'm told.  I couldn't seem to stop Lindzen referring to
      the crap paper nor his own in response to some comments in Chapter 5. With your
      paper coming up and the one Myles is involved with you'll have enough to
      not bother answering.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 14:52 04/04/2005, you wrote:

     I am writing a comment on this, with Ben and Caspar Ammann.
     It is total crap. It is a pain to do, but important to have a response
     on the record.
     A number of us suspect that one of the editors of GRL is deliberately
     choosing 'sympathetic' referees for papers like this (another e.g. is the
     recent M&M paper criticizing the hockey stick).
     Myles -- did I send you my volcano paper (soon in JGR)?
     Tom.
     ===================
     Myles Allen wrote:

     Dear Phil and Tom,
     Thanks for the copy of Douglass and Knox, Phil. Am I
     right that answer to the "exercise to the reader
     spotting the obvious mistake" is:
     1) Failure to take into account uncertainty in the
     baseline climate (or, indeed, the removed ENSO and
     solar signals) in fitting the simple model. If
     everything is shifted down by 0.2K in figure 3, you
     could get a much higher peak and relaxation time. I'm
     reasonably confident about this one, because (as Dick
     points out) fitting things is what I do...
     I'm less confident about
     2) Confusion between TOA longwave anomalies, which
     would presumably be affected by the cold stratospheric
     aerosol cloud, and tropopause longwave anomalies,
     which are relevant to the calculation of lambda.  This
     is most evident in paragraph [26], where they suggest
     Delta(T)/Delta(LW)~lambda, with Delta(LW) being the
     perturbation TOA longwave anomaly observed by ERBE.
     Can one really ignore the impact of volcanic aerosols
     on longwave fluxes?
     3) Odder still, equation (9) seems to suggest that the
     forcing due to Pinatubo is simply the longwave
     anomaly, with no mention of shortwave at all:
     although, perhaps by chance, they seem to get a
     forcing-to-AOD relationship that is consistent with
     Hansen's.
     Are you doing anything about this, Tom?  Does it
     matter?  Will anyone care?
     Myles
     Send instant messages to your online friends [1]http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

