date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:51:20 -0500
from: Chet Ropelewski <Chet.Ropelewski@noaa.gov>
subject: Re: Request for a review
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

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Phil,
    Thanks for the informal comments and reprint.  They will be useful 
for the review.   I fear this submission is going to be a struggle. 

    Yes, I'm in the DC area again.  My office is in Silver Spring.  Give 
me a head's up the next time you expect to be in the area.  I planning 
to go to a reduced work schedule (3-days a week) early next year and 
expect to keep a hand in the game for a couple of years. 
Best
-Chet

Phil Jones wrote:
>
>  Chet,
>     Glad to hear you have concerns about the paper! A lot of the issues
>  relate to the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses producing temperature trends
>  that are less than in the HadCRUT3/NCDC/GISS surface temperatures
>  from the late 1950s. There is a paper by Kalnay and Cai (2003) that 
> claims
>  these differences result from Land-use/Land-cover effects - which is
>  total rubbish. Once the Reanalyses (ERA-40 as well) get better after the
>  satellite data start coming in all the differences disappear.
>     Attached is a nice paper on all this with ERA-40.
>
>    It would be nice to meet up again - are you back in the DC area?
>  If you are I should tell you when I'm next in the area. I'm assuming 
> you're
>  not planning a holiday in the UK at any time!
>
>  Cheers
>  Phil
>
>
> At 13:22 18/02/2009, you wrote:
>> Phil,
>>   Thanks for your suggestions.  You confirm some of my concerns about 
>> this submission.  I hope that we can cross paths again before I 
>> really retire.
>> Best
>> -Chet
>>
>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>>
>>>  Chet,
>>>     I just knew it had to contain Roger Pielke Sr! It also has many 
>>> authors the same
>>>  from a paper in JGR that David Parker and others sent in a comment 
>>> about -
>>>  that was accepted a few weeks ago.  I can guess it will say the 
>>> same sorts of things.
>>>
>>>    A lot of the things they are saying have been established 
>>> haven't. They are not
>>>  as important as this paper will claim!
>>>
>>>  So David would be a good reviewer.  I'd just get too stroppy with 
>>> them, as Roger never
>>>  listens to anything said to him.
>>>
>>>  David is
>>>
>>>  David Parker   Met Office Hadley Centre   FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 
>>> 3PB UK
>>> E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk
>>> Tel: +44-1392-886649  Fax: +44-1392-885681  http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
>>>
>>>  Don't tell David I suggested him!
>>>
>>>  Tom Peterson would be another good reviewer, but I can see there is 
>>> at least
>>>  one person from NCDC on the list. Another would be Kevin Trenberth, 
>>> but again
>>>  there is someone from NCAR in the author list.
>>>
>>>
>>>  Cheers
>>>  Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> At 17:25 17/02/2009, you wrote:
>>>> Phil,
>>>>   Per your request. Abstract below.  Auhor list attached.  Thanks 
>>>> for your help.
>>>> -Chet
>>>>
>>>> ABSTRACT
>>>> 271 Human activities have modified the environment for thousands of 
>>>> years.
>>>> 272 Significant population increase, migration, and accelerated 
>>>> socio-economic activities
>>>> 273 have intensified these environmental changes over the last 
>>>> several centuries. The impacts
>>>> 274 of these changes have been found in local, regional, and global 
>>>> trends in modern
>>>> 275 atmospheric temperature records and other relevant climatic 
>>>> indicators.
>>>> 276 One of the human influences on atmospheric temperature trends 
>>>> is extensive
>>>> 277 land use land cover change (LULCC) and its climate forcing. 
>>>> Studies using both
>>>> 278 modeled and observed data have documented these impacts (e.g., 
>>>> Chase et al. 2000;
>>>> 279 Kalnay and Cai 2003; Feddema et al. 2005; Christy et al. 2006; 
>>>> Mahmood et al. 2006b;
>>>> 280 Ezber et al. 2007; Nunez et al. 2008). Thus, it is essential 
>>>> that we detect LULCCs
>>>> 281 accurately at appropriate scales and in a timely manner to 
>>>> better understand the impacts
>>>> 282 on climate and provide improved prediction of future climate.
>>>> 283 The National Research Council (2005) has recommended the 
>>>> broadening of the
>>>> 284 climate change issue to include LULCC processes as an important 
>>>> climate forcing. The
>>>> 285 findings of this report state:
>>>> 286 "Regional variations in radiative forcing may have important 
>>>> regional and
>>>> 287 global climatic implications that are not resolved by the 
>>>> concept of global mean radiative
>>>> 288 forcing. Tropospheric aerosols and landscape changes have 
>>>> particularly heterogeneous
>>>> 289 forcings. To date, there have been only limited studies of 
>>>> regional radiative forcing and
>>>> 290 response. Indeed, it is not clear how best to diagnose a 
>>>> regional forcing and response in
>>>> 291 the observational record; regional forcings can lead to global 
>>>> climate responses, while
>>>> 292 global forcings can be associated with regional climate 
>>>> responses. Regional diabatic
>>>> 293 heating can also cause atmospheric teleconnections that 
>>>> influence regional climate
>>>> 294 thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing. 
>>>> Improving societally relevant
>>>> 295 projections of regional climate impacts will require a better 
>>>> understanding of the
>>>> 296 magnitudes of regional forcings and the associated climate 
>>>> responses."
>>>> 297 In short, the above discussion clearly identified the 
>>>> importance of LULCC in the climate
>>>> 298 system.
>>>> 299 It has also been established in the literature that biases, 
>>>> inaccuracies, and
>>>> 300 imprecision have been introduced to the climate monitoring 
>>>> systems because of
>>>> 301 meteorological station moves, instrument changes, improper 
>>>> exposure of instruments, and
>>>> 302 changes in observation practices (Davey and Pielke 2005; Pielke 
>>>> et al. 2007a, b;
>>>> 303 Mahmood et al. 2006a). Hence, we also need strategies that will 
>>>> help us to detect and
>>>> 304 overcome these biases and thus lead to improved understanding 
>>>> of the role of land use
>>>> 305 forcing within the climate system.
>>>> 306 This paper has two main objectives. First, it highlights LULCC 
>>>> and its role
>>>> 307 within the climate system. Examples include both long-term 
>>>> systematic change (e.g.,
>>>> 308 agricultural land use change, deforestation) and short-term 
>>>> abrupt change (e.g., rapid
>>>> 309 urbanization). Second, the paper proposes a series of 
>>>> recommendations related to
>>>> 310 detecting LULCC from observed climatic records, as well as 
>>>> modeling to improve our
>>>> 311 understanding of LULCC and its impacts on climate. The latter 
>>>> also includes discussion
>>>> 312 on why and how LULCC needs to be considered as a climate 
>>>> forcing and why it must be
>>>> 313 included as a first-order effect in all climate assessments.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>  Chet,
>>>>>    Bit busy - as always - for the next few weeks. Can you send the
>>>>>  abstract and the author list, to help me make some suggestions?
>>>>>
>>>>>  Cheers
>>>>>  Phil
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> At 16:24 17/02/2009, you wrote:
>>>>>> Hi Phil,
>>>>>>
>>>>>>    Among the jobs that I can't seem to retire from is Climate 
>>>>>> Variability/Change Editor of the Bulletin of the American 
>>>>>> Meteorological Society (BAMS).  I'm asking for your help as a 
>>>>>> reviewer.  The submission is "Impacts of Land Use Land Cover 
>>>>>> Change on Climate and Future Research Priorities" by R. Mahmood 
>>>>>> and 37 co-authors.  Given the number of co-authors and their 
>>>>>> affiliations it is a challenge to find un-conflicted reviewers 
>>>>>> who know the subject.
>>>>>> The paper is actually a conference summary, fairly broad ranging, 
>>>>>> running 25 double-space pages.  I would need comments in about 4 
>>>>>> to 5 weeks.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>    If you are not able to serve as a reviewer I would appreciate 
>>>>>> suggestions for alternatives, preferably outside the U.S. given 
>>>>>> the extensive list of authors, almost all of them from the U.S.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>    I hope that all is well with you.  I've "retired" after about 
>>>>>> 10 years at the IRI.   I accepted a visiting scientist position 
>>>>>> at NOAA's Climate Program Office and doing more program 
>>>>>> management than I'd bargained for.  The plan is to go to a 
>>>>>> reduced schedule about a year from now and perhaps return to more 
>>>>>> scientific endeavors.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Best
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -Chet Ropelewski
>>>>>
>>>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>> University of East Anglia
>>>>> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>>>> NR4 7TJ
>>>>> UK 
>>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>> NR4 7TJ
>>> UK 
>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>>>
>>
>> Prof. Phil Jones
>> Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>> School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>> University of East Anglia
>> Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>> NR4 7TJ
>> UK 
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                 
>
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