date: Wed Dec 10 15:57:43 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: WG comments - quick response
to: C G Kilsby <c.g.kilsby@newcastle.ac.uk>

    Chris,
        How much do you think we're going to do?
    Even restricting this to the 10 WG sites, the permutations are going to beat us.
    With all the non-rainfall variables we can't throw all the days together, else the
    seasonal cycle will obscure anything you want to see.
    To be able to see if 3>2>1 we'll need to restrict to individual months for temperature.
    Let's say we try this with a couple of temperature variables - mean monthly T
    and highest Tx.
    I expect 2 to be > 1 and 3>>2, but from looking at the model variants so far climate model
    uncertainty dwarfs WG uncertainty.  Problem is much of this is down to wacky data.
    I'm beginning to think that the modelling has lost the real-world agreement between
   variables -
    which is what the WG assumes to still be the case!
    Colin has sent revised code to Vaz - it now runs through without hanging.
    This was only achievable by stopping the checks for silly numbers!
    Once you have some of the final cfs send down here - we need to look at them with
    those plots Colin did last week.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 16:29 09/12/2008, you wrote:

     We already have sufficient info to start this:

     1. 6190 obs = 30 years daily data (rainfall, temp, etc. and various indices of these) -
     can estimate mean + pdf or 10,50,90 %ile values by bootstrap etc. = natural variability
     2. 6190 100 ensemble - can estimate WG "uncertainty" or pdfs for T, rainfall (various
     stats) = "WG uncertainty"
     3. Future projections 1000 ensemble - pdfs as in 2 = "WG uncertainty" + ClimateModel
     uncertainty

     Expect 3>>2 and 2>~1

     C
         _______________________________________________________________________________

          From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
          Sent: 09 December 2008 16:06
          To: C G Kilsby
          Subject: RE: WG comments - quick response
           Chris,
              Can you elaborate on the pdf idea?  Not clear what you mean.
           Cheers
           Phil
          At 15:29 09/12/2008, you wrote:

          Yes - agree with all you say here and before.

          Alberto is after a full uncertainty analysis: a nice idea, but not realistic on this
          timescale, and we're not paid to do it!

          Something towards it would be useful/achievable though and will discuss here.

          Could do things like compare future pdfs of variables with pdf from control?
          (And same for extremes)

          Chris


            _______________________________________________________________________________

                From: Phil Jones [ [2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
                Sent: 09 December 2008 10:42
                To: C G Kilsby
                Cc: c.harpham@uea.ac.uk
                Subject: WG comments - quick response
                 Chris,
                    I presume we're on the same wavelength over these two sets of comments -
                 i.e. there isn't much to respond to. The extra detail could be done, but it
                isn't
                 going to be that helpful to 99.9% of potential users. It is too detailed for
                 the main report - and probably too much for the Annex.
                    I can have a go at responding this weekend - if we get Tim's by then,
                 if you want?
                   The most important thing to add is Section 4 - with some extremes in the
                future,
                 but we need the final set of cfs for this.
                 Cheers
                 Phil
                 Chris,
                     These two sets of comments seem fine - let's hope Tim Carter's are in a
                similar
                 vein.  So good choices so far!
                   I'm not sure that these are quite the reviews DEFRA were expecting, but
                they
                 are positive for us.
                    Elaine Barrow
                     Not much to respond to. Elaine seems confused in para 3 about data
                preparation
                 and the users checking their data. She's misunderstood that the WG is
                prefitted,
                 by us!
                   Ringway and LHR weren't the best sites. We do have the other 8.
                     The validity of the IVRs in the future has been tested - in our section
                3.
                    Also she's not seen the WG User's Guide.
                  Alberto Montanari
                   Seems to want a lot more detail that we could do, but I'm sure that most
                people
                 wouldn't even look at.  We could provide goodness-of-fit diagrams, R*R of all
                the fits etc,
                 but is this going to help the user understand uncertainty - certainly not if
                the cfs's
                 have the range they currently do!
                   Again there seems to be a few things that haven't been understood, which is
                useful.
                 If these two can't understand what we've done.
                  Happier with Dave Sexton's reply and that they will be clipping the values
                in
                 the model variants. Colin is still checking the code Ag is using. There seem
                 one or two small issues.
                 Cheers
                 Phil

                At 11:35 04/12/2008, Bryden, Clare wrote:

                Phil, Chris
                Please find two sets of review comments on the Weather Generator attached.
                Comments are still outstanding from Tim Carter, expected 11th December.
                <<Comments_on_Weather_Generator_Alberto_Montanari.pdf>>
                <<Comments_on_Weather_Generator_Elaine_Barrow.pdf>>
                Best regards
                Clare
                ---
                Clare Bryden   Climate Business Manager
                Tel: 01392 884834   Mobile: 07717 156452
                Please note that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday.
                 Crown Copyright 2008.  Produced by the Met Office.
                _____________________________________________ From:  Bryden, Clare  Sent:  27
                November 2008 09:30 To:    'myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk';
                'francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca'; 'C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk';
                'ctebaldi@climatecentral.org'; 'Alberto Montanari';
                'elaine.barrow@sasktel.net'; 'tim.carter@ymparisto.fi';
                'n.c.wells@soc.soton.ac.uk'; 'Jaak.Monbaliu@bwk.kuleuven.be';
                'corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no' Cc:    'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk';
                'brian.hoskins@imperial.ac.uk'; 'Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)';
                'roger.street@ukcip.org.uk'; 'Warrilow, David (CEOSA)'; 'P.Jones@uea.ac.uk';
                'c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk'; Jenkins, Geoff; Pope, Vicky; Mitchell, John FB
                (Director of Climate Science); Gordon, Chris; Murphy, James Subject:       RE:
                Review of science in UKCIP08 product
                Dear All
                This is a reminder that tomorrow is the deadline for review comments.  Thank
                you to those who have already been in touch. The review is free format.  We
                have no expectations or limitations regarding number of pages.  Please send
                your review via email to John Mitchell, cc'ed to this email, and I'd be
                grateful if you could copy them to me.  Please note that your comments will be
                shared with the other reviewers, by publishing them on the review website.  We
                won't edit them in any way, other than by converting to pdf. Best regards
                Clare --- Clare Bryden   Climate Business Manager Tel: 01392 884834   Mobile:
                07717 156452 Please note that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday. 
                Crown Copyright 2008.  Produced by the Met Office.
                _____________________________________________ From:  Bryden, Clare  Sent:  20
                October 2008 16:35 To:    'myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk';
                'francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca'; 'C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk';
                'ctebaldi@climatecentral.org' Cc:    'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk';
                'brian.hoskins@imperial.ac.uk'; 'Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)';
                'roger.street@ukcip.org.uk'; 'Warrilow, David (CEOSA)'; 'P.Jones@uea.ac.uk';
                'c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk'; Jenkins, Geoff; Pope, Vicky; Mitchell, John FB
                (Director of Climate Science); Gordon, Chris; Murphy, James Subject:
                Review of science in UKCIP08 product
                Dear All
                We understand from Defra that you have kindly agreed to review aspects of the
                UK 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios.  I will be project managing the
                review on behalf of Defra. I attach a short note on the Terms of Reference for
                the Review. As mentioned in the original letter of invitation from Bob Watson,
                we would be grateful if you would review the section on probabilistic
                projections, and in particular to assess whether the methodology employed is
                appropriate for its purpose of delivering state-of-the-art estimates of the
                risk of different outcomes for UK climate, consistent with current
                understanding of key drivers of climate change, available climate model
                results and constraints offered by observations of historical climate. The
                review should not comment on such aspects as presentation to users or the
                contents of the reports. The review documents are available on a
                password-protected website. Please let me know if you cannot gain access for
                any reason. URL -
                [3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/review3/ Login - icp0712
                Password - Bar0meter
                Best regards Clare
                 << File: ReviewUKCIP08_TOR_v2.pdf >> --- Clare Bryden   Climate Account
                Manager Met Office FitzRoy Road  Exeter  EX1 3PB  United Kingdom Tel: +44
                (0)1392 885196   Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681   Mobile: 07717 156452 E-mail:
                clare.bryden@metoffice.gov.uk  [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ Please note
                that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday.
                 Crown Copyright 2008.  Produced by the Met Office. New Met Office Climate
                Change Seminars - plan today to safeguard your future success
                [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/training/climatechange
                Prof. Phil Jones
                Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
                School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
                University of East Anglia
                Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
                NR4 7TJ
                UK

                ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


          Prof. Phil Jones
          Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
          School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
          University of East Anglia
          Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
          NR4 7TJ
          UK
          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

