cc: Simon Mason <simon@iri.columbia.edu>
date: Fri Feb 27 12:18:00 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: temperature specialist
to: Madeleine Thomson <mthomson@iri.columbia.edu>

    Madeleine,
      I've looked at this paper and it only looks at temperature and precipitation
    data for the period 1966-1995. This paper is the one you gave me the link
    for. If you meant to attach another, then I have not got it.
      I don't have access to papers (26-28) which may use longer paper.
    If though they use ref 34 or a more recent version (attached) then
    there is much infilling of data in CRU TS 2.1 in much of Africa. Ref 34
    and the attached shouldn't be relied on for long-term trends when
    there is little available data in early decades of the 20th century.
     If there is no observational data then the gridded reduces to putting
    in the average temperature and rainfall for the 1961-90 period.
     Simon will know what I'm talking about!
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 14:03 25/02/2009, Madeleine Thomson wrote:

     Dear Phil
     I was given your name as a specialist in temperature analysis in Africa and am I am
     writing to you to ask if you could share some of your knowledge on temperature and help
     me better understand whether or not there is evidence of warming trends in the East
     African highlands over the last century. My question relates to the discussions in the
     literature over the last few years re the role that temperature increases may have
     played in the observed increases in malaria epidemics in Kenya in particular (Kericho)
     I am not trying to further the question - has climate change resulted in increases in
     malaria (for which there is already an extensive literature) but rather try and
     understand the importance or otherwise of a paper by Simon Hay and colleagues from
     Oxford  (Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea
     Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya Nature 2002;415:905-9 -
     [1]http://origin.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol8no12/pdfs/02-0077.pdf) in which they analysed
     meteorological data from 1901 to 1995 for four highland sites where malaria cases are on
     the rise in East Africa
       Kericho in western Kenya, Kabale in south-western Uganda, Gikonkko in southern Rwanda,
     and Muhanga in northern Burundi. For each month, the researchers determined the average
     temperature, as well as the average minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and vapour
     pressure.
     After analysing the 95-years' worth of data, the team found no significant shifts in
     temperature or vapour pressure at any of the four sites. Rainfall had increased at only
     one, Muhanga.
     The results of this paper were presented at a recent meeting with the statement that
     there is no evidence for warming in East Africa over the last century. Is this really
     the case - that there no evidence of a warming trend generally in East Africa - or
     specifically at these sites.
     I have seen scattered reports in the literature suggesting that there have been strong
     warming trends over this time period but have yet to find a consolidated analysis. In
     particular I am interested in trends in minimum temperature which are likely to be most
     relevant to the malaria problem. I attach the paper of interest for your reference.
     I look forward to your reply.
     Best Regards
     Madeleine
     Madeleine C. Thomson Ph.D.
     Senior Research Scientist
     Director Impacts Research
     Chair Africa Regional Programme
     International Research Institute
     for Climate and Society
     The Earth Institute at
     Columbia University
     Lamont Campus
     Palisades, 10964 New York
     Tel: 1 845 680 4413
     Fax: 1 845 680 4864
     web [2]http://iri.columbia.edu
     The IRI is a PAHO-WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Sensitive Diseases

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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