cc: Fortunat Joos <joos@climate.unibe.ch>, Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>, Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>, Anders Levermann <levermann@pik-potsdam.de>, Eva Bauer <eva.bauer@pik-potsdam.de>, Gian-Kasper Plattner <plattner@climate.unibe.ch>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
date: Thu, 9 Feb 2006 15:01:05 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: EMIC millennium runs
to: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>

<x-flowed>
Hi Tim and gang - Tim, the fig panel looks good 
to me. I would think seriously about adding an 
instrumental line (e.g., same as chap 3 mean NH) 
- can this be done w/ your choice of ref period? 
Not the end of the world if we leave it off, in 
my opinion.

EVERYONE - please send feedback on any issues 
straight to Tim - his goal is to finalize this 
figure this week.

Tim and Keith - think tables for descriptions of 
all the curves/refs instead of captions. Either 
way is space-consuming, but the table approach 
will be less messy.

Nice job - really like the way we're handling the obs data now.

best, peck



>Dear all,
>
>I've attached a copy of the figure that I've 
>drawn from the Bern2.5cc and Climber2 data that 
>I was sent (thank you Eva and Kasper for the 
>data).
>
>This isn't necessarily the final version of the 
>figure - I have to talk some more with Keith 
>about it, and of course with Peck and Eystein 
>too.  But I thought I'd circulate this version 
>now to get your views/feedback.
>
>Some information about the diagram:
>
>This is labelled as panel (d) because it will 
>probably be added to an existing diagram that 
>showed forcings and NH temperatures from 
>published model simulations.
>
>The coloured lines show the model results as 
>indicated in the legend.  I have simply labelled 
>them with the model name, an abbreviation for 
>the solar forcing (WLS or Bard25) and an 
>indication of whether only natural (Nat) or all 
>(All) forcings were included.  I can change the 
>labelling to suit everyone.  You will also see 
>that I haven't included the "Bard08" forcing, 
>because this gave almost identical results to 
>"WLS" forcing.  All series have been 30-year 
>smoothed.
>
>The grey shading is our current way of 
>presenting the evidence from proxy-based 
>reconstructions of NH temperature (or part of 
>the NH in some cases).  The darker the grey, the 
>more reconstructions overlap that point.  We 
>haven't included any information from 
>instrumental temperatures, and thus the 20th 
>century grey band is relatively wide because 
>even in the 20th century it is based upon the 
>uncertainty in the proxy reconstructions.
>
>Finally, note that everything is expressed as 
>anomalies from a pre-20th century reference 
>period (1500-1899) to be consistent with the 
>other panels of this figure.  This reference 
>period is used for the grey shading of the 
>reconstructions as well as the model 
>simulations.  It shows the divergence of the All 
>and Nat simulations in the 19th and 20th 
>centuries nicely.
>
>Best regards
>
>Tim
>
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:emics1.pdf (PDF /IC) (00112361)
>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>Climatic Research Unit
>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>
>e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>phone:    +44 1603 592089
>fax:      +44 1603 507784
>web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
</x-flowed>
